Please tell your friends about federated social media site that speaks several fediverse protocols thus serving as a hub uniting them, hubzilla.eskimo.com, also check out friendica.eskimo.com, federated
macroblogging social media site, mastodon.eskimo.com a federated microblogging site, and yacy.eskimo.com an uncensored federated search engine. All Free!
Höcke liest Sellner: „Harmloser“ als Merz journalistenwatch.com/2025/07/… Ich spreche mit jedem und höre mir alle Argumente an. Das gilt besonders, wenn ein Begriff die öffentliche Debatte so maßgeblich bestimmt hat, wie aktuell der Titel dieses Buches: »Remigration«. Von Björn Höcke auf Telegram Die Idee steht im Raum — und ist so wichtig, daß bei der Urteilsbegründung zur Aufhebung des Compact-Verbots ausdrücklich darauf […] #news #press
"Jurnalul de realitate" poate fi un instrument puternic în procesul de refacere a percepției după o experiență cu un narcisist. 📖✨
După ce ai trecut prin manipulare narcisistă, mintea poate fi plină de confuzie și îndoieli despre ce este real și ce nu. Scrisul într-un jurnal te ajută să-ți ancorezi gândurile în realitate, să-ți observi sentimentele și să discerni între faptele obiective și distorsiunile create de abuz.
Acest proces sprijină consolidarea propriei identități și recapătă încrederea în propria judecată. Este un spațiu sigur unde îți poți procesa experiențele fără teama de a fi criticat sau invalidat.
Dacă te lupți cu efectele unui narcisist, încearcă să ții un "jurnal de realitate" zilnic — notează ce s-a întâmplat, cum te-ai simțit și ce înveți despre tine în fiecare zi. Pas cu pas, îți vei recăpăta perspectiva. 💪🌱 #NarcissisticAbuseRecovery #MentalHealth #SelfCare
¿He disfrutado grabando al aire libre? Hell NO. Pero hoy vengo con un intento más perfomativo de conectar con la propuesta del vídeo, a ver qué os parece:)✉️...
#Palestine / DellaPergola, leading Israeli demographer, questions Gaza death toll study methodology
Prof. Sergio DellaPergola, a renowned demographer at Hebrew University and international authority on Jewish population statistics, critiques a study by Prof. Michael Spagat estimating around 91,400 deaths in Gaza.
[...] Regrettably, it is clear that the number of deaths in Gaza grows daily, and the results reported in the Spagat et. al survey, and in critiques of the survey, require revision. Nonetheless, it would have been better if, before publishing the figure of 100,000 deaths in Gaza, Haaretz had checked the facts, or at least added a question mark to the rounded figure.
DellaPergola, who is a specialist in demographic research, argues the research has significant methodological flaws despite being rejected by a medical journal but published independently.
Key concerns include non-random sampling, potential duplicate counting due to displaced families, and statistical inconsistencies. When the study's prisoner count estimates are compared to known figures, DellaPergola suggests the death toll may be closer to 34,000 - aligning with other systematic checks.
DellaPergola calls for more rigorous fact-checking before publishing casualty figures.
The article published by Haaretz on June 26, regarding Palestinian deaths in Gaza, reports on a pre-print study that had yet to be peer reviewed. Here are the issues with its methodology and how it can be revised
In summary: DellaPergola utterly embarrasses himself with this clown-level "critique" of the Gaza Mortality Survey. The arguments presented are without exception mumbo-jumbo, scientifically speaking. In essence, apart from a number of points where he is just flat out methodologically incorrect and fails to spot high school-level errors in his argument (such as plain failing to understand what the Guillot et al. study he tries to cite in his support actually did), he just points to potential sources of *uncertainty* and then assumes, with absolute zero evidence or compelling argument whatsoever, pulling numbers straight out of his arse, that all of these uncertainties must necessarily work in the direction of an overestimate of deaths, while systematically neglecting to discuss any of the sources of sampling bias that do, in fact, *necessarily* contribute to an *under*estimation (chiefly that completely destroyed households can no longer be sampled).
This piece is science-free, embarrassingly illiterate (both statistically and literally in terms of reading comprehension applied to other studies) piece of garbage. DellaPergola outs himself as someone utterly incapable of letting facts get in the way of his racist biases.
***
“The first and most self-evident way to estimate the number of dead is by counting the bodies that arrive at morgues or are buried. Astoundingly, according to Gazan sources, this simple action was never performed.”
FALSE. In the beginning, those were the ONLY deaths that were counted.
"Granted, some of the bodies are still buried under destroyed buildings. But even in the most horrific sanitary conditions, it's inconceivable that there are still tens of thousands of buried bodies 21 months after the fighting began."
FALSE. This ignores that Israel has systematically destroyed the heavy machinery necessary to recover them. The passing of time (under bombardment) does not help shifting tons of concrete by hand.
"And at least according to the IDF, residents were warned to evacuate their homes before heavy bombs were launched.”
FFS. This is 100% propaganda. Israel randomly does this sometimes to provide its idiot apologists with the licence to claim this, but it is completely untrue that this is in any way consistently applied.
"The respondents (one person in each family) were asked about what has happened to their relatives since the war began.”
FALSE. They were asked not about their "relatives", but about the members of their own pre-Oct 7 HOUSEHOLD. For someone attempting a critique of the study's methodology, it is beyond embarrassing to not even bother to represent it correctly. There is indeed an auxiliary question about deaths in the wider family, but that's not what the study's published results are based on.
"The relative completing the survey could report the deceased adult because he or she will think of the original family composition."
FALSE. Again, DellaPergola embarrassingly doesn't even understand how the study proceeded. Respondents were in fact *required* to respond in terms of their original household composition, rendering his whole line of critique moot.
Claim: A stopping rule of 10 households in each sampling unit creates a distortion.
FALSE. Stopping after a given number of interviews WITHIN in a random sampling unit does not by itself undermine “the principle of randomness" at all, nor does selecting an arbitrary adult household member, *because any one of them would be responding with respect to the same household*. DellaPergola does not seem to understand how survey sampling works. The claim that households more likely to have been present and willing to respond are more likely to have experienced a violent death is pulled completely out of thin air, without even pretending to offer an empirical or a priori argument. One could just as easily argue that households with fewer adults (because some have been killed) are more likely to have the surviving adults away from home at a given time.
"A comparison of this sort (see the article by Michel Guillot and colleagues that was published in the Lancet in January 2025) identified 34,344 people who were killed (21,974 men and 12,370 women) between October 7, 2023 and August 31, 2024, based on detailed checks by the Health Ministry.”
FALSE. DellaPergola is illiterate, or perhaps more likely, didn't bother to even read as much as the *abstract* of the Guillot et al. paper. What they actually said is that of the 45,936 reported total number of fatalities at the time, they found 64.4% on the refugee register, which, given that the share of refugees in the total population is 65.7%, CONFIRMS THE 45,936 as the refugee+non-refugee total. DellaPergola tries to claim that Guillot reduced the estimate down to the number of fatalities who were *also* refugees. This is a horrendously embarrassing mistake on his part.
"Of these, 75,200 were killed directly by wartime operations, while between 8,000 and 9,000 died from circumstances that aren't directly connected to the army's operations (and all this is on top of the 6,000 to 7,000 who die in an ordinary year)."
FALSE. The 8k-9k are about deaths not from fighting, but from not receiving medical aid for disease etc. The notion that such deaths e.g., from starvation, or because Israel systematically destroyed dialysis centres, “aren't directly connected to the [Israeli] army's operations" is obvious nonsense.
"In other words, the division and redefinition of households as a result of the state of emergency in Gaza may cause the same death to be reported two or three times.”
FALSE. This is *at best* sloppy wording. For the same death to ACTUALLY be double-counted, two people from the same pre-Oct 7 household would have to be among the survey respondents in different households in the current sample. What he probably *meant* was that those deaths have a higher probability of being reported in the sample. This requires a lot of assumptions, such as that households with a death are more likely to have been split apart. Which under normal circumstances might sound like commonsense, because conditional on a violent death in the household, it was certainly exposed to violence that may have caused a split. But since in Gaza *all* households have been displaced, that argument doesn't work very well. Also, all else being equal, having lost an adult household member reduces the remaining size of the household and therefore the possibility for it to split.
The vastly more obvious source of NEGATIVE bias stemming from household structure is that the large number of households where *all* adult members have been killed are systematically excluded from the sample. But of course, DellaPergola doesn't want to talk about *that*.
"They also provide a contradictory figure from another source regarding the number of Gazan prisoners captured by Israel – 3,436.”
This represents the number of prisoners from Gaza at a single point in time (Source: jpost.com/israel-news/article-…). DellaPergola seems to miss that what is at stake for comparison with the survey finding is the number imprisoned *at any time* during the survey fieldwork period. Moreover, the number he quotes refers only to ‘unlawful combatants' not *all* prisoners from Gaza, or detainees from Gaza who are held in military camps under conditions of enforced disappearance - unlike the survey question.
" Since the same ratio must also apply to the survey's estimate of deaths, the latter number should fall from 91,400 to 34,380."
FALSE. There is absolute no reason why the factor by which the number of prisoners is misestimated - never mind that he is completely wrong in quantifying that factor, see above - ‘must' be the same as for deaths. For someone criticising the rigour of another study's methodology, “I'm going to take one of their numbers and multiply it with a fudge factor" is one hell of a suggestion for how to "improve" the study…
PCATI's criticism suggested that shutting down IDF detention facilities may have been temporary and they may have returned to heavy use once the military started a new campaign in Gaza in October.
To put the point about the Guillot paper in plain language:
DellaPergola central argument is: The one study (Guillot et al. 2025) that checked the Ministry of Health list of 46k fatalities (at the time) name by name could only confirm 34k of them, so I want to use that number as an anchor for the 'true' number that Spagat et al. failed to correctly replicate.
What Guillot et al. ACTUALLY found was: Roughly two-thirds of Gazans are UNRWA-registered refugees, and we could find around two-thirds of the official deaths, namely 34k, on the refugee register, which matches the population total and confirms that the total number of 46k is approximately correct.
Note that this is not buried deep inside the Guillot et al. paper. It's right there literally in the abstract, proving that DellaPergola is either blinded by bias, incompetent, or wilfully misrepresenting that study.
I saw that but to be fair DellaPegola sort of indicates it's a number verified against UNRWA's data ("including lists of refugees entitled to UN assistance"). This also BTW seem to support Hamas' own data..., contracting his claims their numbers can't be trusted.
But regardless, it's clear that DellaPergola doesn't engage with evidence in the Lancet studies documenting systematic under-reporting.
He draws the exact opposite conclusion from what Guillot et al. actually said, so we don't really have to be "fair" and give points for vaguely mentioning UNRWA data in an act of obfuscation.
@bifouba I would also comment on his reliance on #IDF evacuation warnings as a factor in reducing casualties (FFS, this is pure propaganda at this stage) is contradicted by the fact that we saw time and again that evacuated concentrated populations moved to targeted areas created higher casualty rates rather than lower ones, even before the GHF aid distribution death traps.
[...] They don't really talk to you about civilians that may come to your place. Like I was in the Netzarim road and they say, "If someone comes to here, it means that he knows he shouldn't be there and if he still comes, it means he's a terrorist." But I don't ... this is like what they tell you, but I don't really think it's true. They might be shot, they might be captured. really depends on like the day the mood of the commander...
Professor Michael Spagat responds to criticism of the Gaza Mortality Survey that estimated around 100,000 deaths. He addresses multiple errors in critic Sergio DellaPergola’s analysis, clarifying that Gaza’s Health Ministry primarily uses hospital morgue data, not just family reports. Independent researchers have verified the ministry’s detailed casualty lists as reliable. Spagat explains the survey’s systematic sampling methodology and notes that DellaPergola contradicted himself by first dismissing then later citing the same Health Ministry data. The survey found evidence of significant undercounting, with many deaths unrecorded due to strict documentation requirements and logistical challenges.
[…] DellaPergola continues to critique our sampling procedures, which are described briefly in the body of the article and in more detail in its appendix. He writes that we explained that “once a certain geographic counting cell reached ten households that agreed to participate, the count there was considered complete.” But in practice the survey was conducted as follows: let’s assume that a randomly selected sampling point includes 100 households in tents. The tents are numbered from 1 to 100, and a random number is chosen from them, between 1 and 10. If the number chosen is 4, the interviewers will approach households 4, 14, 24, and so on until 94. If all tent residents agree to be interviewed, that sampling point is finished. If there are refusals — which were rare — the interviewing team will start over from a different random starting point. This is as random as it can be, and willingness to participate in the survey was not a significant factor in it.
מאמר הביקורת של סרג'ו דלה־פרגולה על כתבתו של ניר חסון ("הארץ", 27.6), שבה נטען בהסתמך על סקר התמותה בעזה (GMS) כי מספר המתים בעזה הוא כ–100 אלף, רצוף טעויות וסת
DellaPergola's criticism was such worthless garbage with literally zero scientific merit that I'm surprised Spagat bothered responding. DellaPergola is scientifically incompetent and a fraud.
had to read it, to see what this grand critique [ referenced in ] was about...
XD ... is this a joke? it's a joke right? ... it's intentionally making a mockery of those who do that kind of thing, right? this is satire, right? ... right? ... i catch myself in a kind of lingering facepalm where i'm kinda pinching at my brow / third eye... the last example especially clinches is, making is surely a joke... right?
He turns the Wayland debate into politics. The presentation style is very ad hominem, e.g.:
and the "e.g." offered, is a screenshot of his post saying:
Alpine Linux says "No XLibre!" for Political Reasons
Alpine Linux says, "If anyone merges XLibre i will be pursuing a code of conduct violation against them. This is about politics, not just software."
he was quoting "Alpine Linux" (~ or a dev thereof, rather), who were the ones explicitly asserting it was about politics. ... if the quote's spurious fiction he contrived, then surely that's the angle to attack that at... not to try allude some ad hominem lurking between the lines if you look at it the right way, squinting, with your eyes half closed, upside down, in a mirror... hehehe.
... it's gotta be a joke. it fits as a joke. but it's hard to laugh at... because of the uncertainty... what if they're serious?! then it's not just some ugly-punch-down reductio-absurdist mockery-satire social-commentary humour at those who so lose their minds (... mercury poisoning maybe?), but then it's laughing directly at the tragedy, worsening the injury, triggering worse doubling down into the insane groupthink and poor-me energy drama, and the gestapo dystopian nightmares evoked to protect this perpetually provoked tender wound...
but surely not, right?
it's a joke right?
satirising in sympathy with lunduke, and lunduke just missed that, right?
... ... ... or was it serious?! O_O (pls no gestapo. !!!)
alright i'll try slap a poll on this too (polls do work on nerdpol.ch right?... not letting me add more than 2 options... looks iffy) ... not that anyone ever comes by here to see n vote...
Pero esta noticia no está mal puesta? Lo gordo es el caso nummaria y a quien le ha caído la pena más fuerte es al asesor fiscal que montó el tinglado para evadir impuestos. Para mí el titular debería ser 80 años de cárcel por diseñar un sistema para evadir impuestos.
El tribunal impone 80 años de cárcel al asesor fiscal Fernando Peña por desarrollar un sistema ilegal para defraudar a Hacienda a través de "un entramado de sociedades" en España y el extranjero
Top Russian Navy commander killed in Kursk Region – MOD rt.com/russia/620933-top-nave-… Major General Mikhail Gudkov reportedly died after a Ukrainian missile strike on a Marines’ field HQ Read Full Article at RT.com #news #press
I went from using Gentoo 20 years ago, then a long break from Linux, to now using Arch. It‘s probably just my memory that I remember having fewer issues then than I sometimes have now.
I've seen things you people wouldn't believe. Portage on fire off the shoulder of Orion. I watched Pacman glitter in the dark near the Tannhäuser Gate. All those moments will be lost in time, like tears in beer.
Lol, there is definitely a reason I usually recommend Mint to people just getting started.
Arch has gotten a whole lot better these days (especially with the Aur) but I definitely wouldn't recommend it to anyone who didn't have at least the basics down pat.
I don't even get why anyone would want to do Gentoo. That pain is not worth it.
Gemini AI needs to be disabled on Android or it will override your privacy settings and gain full access to your texts, calls, and WhatsApp - even if you’ve turned off Gemini Apps Activity.
Το πενταετές «Σχέδιο Δράσης 2025-2030» της Γενικής Γραμματείας Αντεγκληματικής Πολιτικής, προβλέπει την κατασκευή οκτώ νέων φυλακών, τη δημιουργία 6.800 νέων θέσεων κράτησης και την κατάργηση πέντε παλιών καταστημάτων. Με προϋπολογισμό 268 εκατομμυρίων ευρώ, η στρατηγική αυτή επενδύει σε υποδομές χωρίς να θίγει τις βασικές παθογένειες του σωφρονιστικού συστήματος και επιλέγει, αντί της αποσυμφόρησης, περισσότερα κάγκελα.
Το σχέδιο ήρθε να παρουσιαστεί από την κυβέρνηση ως απάντηση στον αυξανόμενο αριθμό εγκλείστων, οι οποίοι τον περασμένο Απρίλιο έφτασαν τους 12.351 πρώτη φορά μετά το 2013 (υπερπληθυσμός ύψους 115%), ενώ η χωρητικότητα των ελληνικών φυλακών φτάνει τις 10.760 θέσεις. Με μια συντηρητική εκτίμηση, ο αριθμός αυτός αναμένεται να φτάσει έως και τους 14.500 την επόμενη πενταετία.
This matters because "polarized" implies a solution: that everyone should stand down from their extreme positions.
An accurate description, that we are experiencing a violent lurch to the right from all parts of the political spectrum, does not have the same implication.
pewresearch.org/politics/featu… suggests that from 1994 to 2017 the left moved left and the right moved right. (In fact it suggests that from 1994 to 2004 everyone moved left, from then to 2011 the Republicans moved right, and from then to 2017 the Democrats moved left.)
Obvious caveats: (1) it doesn't say anything about whatever might have happened between 2017 and now (today's Republicans are pretty crazy! but I think they were already pretty crazy by 2017), and (2) it's dependent on what particular questions their surveys happened to ask.
But it seems unambiguous that 2017's Democrats are further left-according-to-those-questions than 1994's while 2017's Republicans are further right-according-to-those-questions than 1994's, and to me the Democrats' shift looks bigger than the Republicans'.
Interactive chart that illustrates the shift in the American public’s political values from 1994-2017, using a scale of 10 questions asked together on seven Pew Research Center surveys.
Chinese researchers have made some amazing breakthroughs when it comes to curing diabetes, with some amazing news about a very possible cure. But Big Pharma ...
#Vivienda ⭕️ ÚLTIMA HORA | "Samanta y sus dos hijos se quedan". Suspendido hasta el 27 de septiembre el desahucio previsto este lunes en Zaragoza. Decenas de personas, convocadas por el Sindicato de Inquilinas, han arropado a la familia: arainfo.org/?p=309970
Νικημένο μου ξεφτέρι δεν αλλάζουν οι καιροί Με φωτιά και με μαχαίρι πάντα ο κόσμος προχωρεί ......αλλα άντε τώρα να το εξηγησεις αυτό στους ΚυρΠαντεληδες όλου του κόσμου.
@relentless_eduardo EU reform is like 3 lawyers switching a lightbulb: one's changing the bulb, the other shakes it until the first one falls and the third one drafts a bill preventing the sale of ladders for safety reasons.
I know you're really busy at the moment but someday I would love the opportunity to talk to you and Laura about the Small Web Foundation and find out more about it / how and if I can support it. I'm 1000% behind your mission
If you visit Temple Bar, let us know that, too. I put this YouTube livestream on all day as background sound. You can wave to the EarthCam and, if you have YouTube on your phone at the time, we can emoji-wave back.
EarthCam is taking viewers to the heart of Dublin, Ireland with its live streaming webcams! Perched on top of the Temple Bar Pharmacy, experience the energy ...
@Friendica Support Hallo Leute, seit kurzem habe ich bei mir einen komischen Effekt: wenn ich mein eigenes Profil aufrufe, kommt ein Fehlercode: 500 Internal Server Error
Das Friendica-Log sagt dazu folgendes:
2025-07-07T10:04:24Z app [ERROR]: Uncaught Exception ValueError: "DOMDocument::loadHTML(): Argument #1 ($source) must not be empty" at /content/web/friendica/src/Model/Item.php line 3558 {"exception":"ValueError: DOMDocument::loadHTML(): Argument #1 ($source) must not be empty in /content/web/friendica/src/Model/Item.php:3558\nStack trace:\n#0 /content/web/friendica/src/Model/Item.php(3558): DOMDocument->loadHTML()\n#1 /content/web/friendica/src/Model/Item.php(3481): Friendica\\Model\\Item::replacePlatformIcon()\n#2 /content/web/friendica/src/Object/Post.php(451): Friendica\\Model\\Item::prepareBody()\n#3 /content/web/friendica/src/Object/Thread.php(190): Friendica\\Object\\Post->getTemplateData()\n#4 /content/web/friendica/src/Content/Conversation.php(666): Friendica\\Object\\Thread->getTemplateData()\n#5 /content/web/friendica/src/Content/Conversation.php(569): Friendica\\Content\\Conversation->getThreadList()\n#6 /content/web/friendica/src/Module/Profile/Conversations.php(228): Friendica\\Content\\Conversation->render()\n#7 /content/web/friendica/src/Module/Profile/Index.php(79): Friendica\\Module\\Profile\\Conversations->content()\n#8 /content/web/friendica/src/BaseModule.php(236): Friendica\\Module\\Profile\\Index->content()\n#9 /content/web/friendica/src/App.php(668): Friendica\\BaseModule->run()\n#10 /content/web/friendica/index.php(32): Friendica\\App->runFrontend()\n#11 {main}"} - {"file":null,"line":null,"function":null,"request-id":"686b9ba7d80c7","stack":"ErrorHandler::handleException (114), ErrorHandler::Friendica\\Core\\Logger\\Handler\\{closure}","uid":"2af6b2","process_id":2391894}
On 9 July 2025, leading scientists and experts in Earth observation will gather in Prague, Czechia, for a pivotal moment in Earth science – to delve into and debate the strengths of the two finalist candidate satellite missions, CAIRT and WIVERN, as they compete to be selected as ESA’s eleventh Earth Explorer.
The Guardian: Politicians are retreating from net zero because they think the public doesn’t care. But they’re wrong | Rebecca Willis theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Our research shows people are strongly in favour of measures to tackle the climate crisis. They just need to be listened to, says professor of energy and climate governance Rebecca Willis
we received an achievement of excellence candidacy from SF
What does it mean though?
That downloading has been so frequent that we are selected among the few projects that make money for sourceforge
So many downloads and so few users showing up here to speak of issues and problems
1 We are very good, there are no issues, no bugs, no questions, everything works flawlessly
2 We are so bad they don't bother even asking .. no desktops, no guis, no graphic installation, no auto selection of efi/bios disk, no click and install/uninstall software, what good are we. We know the rest works, what is important and what true sys-admins (every user should be in unix/linux) is working ... so who cares, this is what was intended. Cry babies in need of gui tricks were never a target group here.
Highest award candidacy from SF after 4 years but no mention in Distrowatch
Once submitted to DW or paid minimal ad to be listed the blackmail for more money for positive review begins, as Obarun and other good distros found out. So consciously we have distanced ourselves from even sending a free email telling them we exist.
We are not marketing anything, no call for funding, no "personas" to hire
We share the software we use
Anyone who doesn't get the simple picture and minimal commitment to this will never like joborun even if it was called Alice in Wonderland Linux .. it is joborun ... ugly name but it is what it is
J O B O RUN ....heeeee....hawwwww....!!!! Hey, maybe "moonshine linux" would be appropriate ...
Download joborun linux for free. Like Arch built from ground up with runit. Arch as it was meant to be, simple, fast, secure, cutting edge - without the systemd labyrinth to choke it
Utilizing runit (default) init and service supervision…
1) I have the jobbot chroot set up. Outside the chroot is a mix of joborun and artix which I'm really embarrassed about. Nextcloud seems to need ipv6. Is there a good solution to this?
2) I don't need to more than update-jobo-repos, right? I don't need to replace the chroot with the new jobbot image? BTW, Any post to reddit should be mirrored here. I gave up on reddit when we moved here. The new images post really needs to be here.
3) eudev didn't build at first. Then I saw the error: missing dependency: linux6.6-headers
4) bash didn't build for me. No target specified error or something like that. Tried mkpkg and makepkg
5) Tried to build gcc. After 26 hours I aborted it as it was getting a lot of error messages. Over 4000
Joborun should be submitted to distrowatch. If you guys won't do it, can I?
Never ask for help but slog it out alone? You might tell yourself it's noble, but there is a cost. What psychological reasons drive your over independence?
1 It doesn't matter whether the chroot is in RHEL it will build the same Artix Arch Manjaro ... no difference, just pid1 is different, all else is the same. Whether openrc syvinit dinit runit s6 manages services doesn't affect anything, the services are the same. What changes is that when logind is called elogind responds through dbus, instead of consolekit2 in obarun. In this respect spark linux with sinit/ssm is more honest, 99% arch just switching init and services through ssm. Artix wants to pretend it is a distro by rebuilding 100% arch pkgs. At least obarun has a design of difference, no systemd boot, no systemd udev, no systemd logind, and packages built specifically without systemd.
2 No the new image is just updated pkgs so you get the same as running pkg -Suy in chroot, Most of the essential scripts in chroot are included in the jobbot pkgs so if there would be a change you get that replaced as well. /usr/local/bin/**
3 Not that it would make any difference but yes deps was changed to linux-headers PK*D linux6.6-headers but since linux-api-headers is 5.15 eudev is best built with it as well. I passed the change and rebuild it
4 Bash took a long while in this last build and there has always been a test that fails so what to do is after it fails the test makepkg -e --nocheck which finishes up fast as it uses everything compiled already and skips the tests The theory is that test data that succeeded are incorporated in the build while makepkg -f --nocheck will not run tests at all. There are a few pkgs that work this way, many of them because they assume a dbus system is running and trying to use dbus to complete the test ... so Bleep-bloop ... some fail for more dangerous reasons, so let them fail.
5 grep -i ipv6 /src/pkg/job//PKGBUILD reveals ALL packages where ipv6 is disabled. For kernel it is a bit more complicated as you have to edit config and switch all the =n into =y Also in default boot grub.cfg remove the tag that says disable ipv6 Then you have ipv6 The interesting part is running a vm inside joborun of a system that utilizes ipv6 and it gets an ipv6 address, because of use of ipv6 tunnel over ipv4 And that is good enough reason to chop the head of the hydra even knowing that it can still prop up another.
6 I wish you had told me before you erase all the work of the 26hrs .. makepkg -e --nocheck I don't know why you had tests fail though, did you build in the order of linux-api-headers --- glibc binutils ... gcc The last rebuild we did took nearly 40hrs but no tests failed. Building without tests builds fine and in a few hours .. but yes, this is the pkg from hell but we can't live without it Imagine that when it is upgraded to new version and glibc is nearly always upgraded at the same time that whole chain of build tools is built twice On the last run we went wild, we rebuilt another sequence and most of the pkgs in chroot optimized for our build machine, we gave the pkgrel 001 instead of 01 to separate them. Not a spec of difference in speed that we could observe, little difference if any, so never again.
guilty guilty ... of same diagnosis Getting lost on a trip and never asking for directions just rely on maps and signs 😀 Yes yes yes!
There is a sense of autonomy and DIY in some of us, we can't escape it, it is part of who we are. Not all characteristics of a personality need to change and receive therapy, shrinks can go ... .. ff... @@ ..
And fuck the easy way and the proven popular way .... .... like Sid said, I did it MOY WAY!!! (sinatra sid vicious parody)
FUCK IBM .... I didn't say it all day and I was feeling nauseous
Never ask for help but slog it out alone? You might tell yourself it's noble, but there is a cost. What psychological reasons drive your over independence?
I have done it! All that's left of Artix is openrc while I take a break and figure out which init I should be using.
OS: joborun linux x86_64 Host: MS-7721 (6.0) Kernel: Linux 5.15.184-01 Shell: zsh 5.9 CPU: AMD Athlon(tm) X4 860K Quad Core (4) @ 3.70 GHz GPU: AMD Radeon HD 5000/6000/7350/8350 Series Memory: 1.02 GiB / 31.31 GiB (3%) Disk (/): 494.40 GiB / 928.51 GiB (53%) - btrfs
Some things that I've learned:
1) Some packages need/like to be installed together: pkg -S linux, mkinitcpio, eudev, libeudev, base, kmod or pkg -S cryptsetup gnupg gpgme libassuan libgcrypt libgpg-error pacman rpcbind.
2) ./pacman-static is very helpful. timeshift was essential. pacopts was the cleanup hitter! Of course, pkg -Q identifies joborun packages very easily with the 01, 02.03 extensions. Thank you for that!
3) Nextcloud works well on joborun! I had to disable ipv6 on one nextcloud config file. Dovecot and ningx both needed to have ipv6 disabled and so ipv6.disable=1 is in force. Not surprisingly, nextcloud is much zippier now than before.
4) I learned more about systemd than I ever wanted to. /usr/lib/sysusers.d was the bane of the conversion. Artix versions were esysusers and etmpfiles. systemd tentacles everywhere. Even so, we have deal with opensysusers, opentmpfiles, udev, libudev among other systemd parts. It's exhausting.
pacopts is a good tool when trying to clean up between repository sources, unfortunately it brings in a chain of obarun/skarnet pkgs but in total it is a small load.
pacopts origin jobextra
for example will go through the list of jobextr ( pacman -Sl jobextra) see whether any are installed and check if they are authentic against the jobextra.db or not and offer to replace them with the originals. so if you have liburing-2.11-1 even though 2.11-01 will not replace it pacopts will pick-it up
also on cache .zst is arch or artix, .xz is obarun .lz is joborun (except for very few old pkgs still on .xz)
Another trick is to see what you have in pacman -Qo /usr/lib/systemd/system/*
As far as I know none of our pkgs have anything there, so most likely what you find there is another source's pkg which has service files for systemd srored there.
DO ask when you get stuck on anything, discussion here encourages other people to attempt similar things, and that is good because we all learn tricks from one another. It is like libertarian school 😀
DO ask when you get stuck on anything, discussion here encourages other people to attempt similar things, and that is good because we all learn tricks from one another. It is like libertarian school 😀
Will do. Some packages built fine in the jobbot chroot. Some did not. Is there a generic troubleshooting guideline?
We used to make notes of when some tests failed to run without tests/check but without feedback from users we stopped being consistent. What is generic as procedure is:
makepkg --> some tests fail makepkg -e --nocheck
there have been instances where a valid gpg signature is not found in the default pacman server, either server is down or not up to date, in this case either search other servers or risk and run --skippgpcheck and especially when recently you have run other sw with the same key and it worked or rebuilt the same .. If it is gnu sw ... they are known to be a mess so don't worry about them .. unfortunately we are on gnu linux. If you are within US borders, maybe CDN as well, you may be oK but outside their turf things (networked gnu servers) tend to be neglected. Arch building servers are US based so whet they see is one thing, what the rest of the world sees is another, when it comes to gnu. Worst of all is they don't give a shit .. because they are GNU
One problematic exception to building we are investigating is e2fsprogs and its fuse byproduct. It compiles fine all the way and when it gets to the stage of building documentation it fails to find language modules of the documents it supposedly were built. The problem was narrowed down to using gettext, and using arch gettext instead, produced those modules. The difference between our gettext and their gettext is using our own minimalist build of emacs (emacs-git) which is more recent than arch but is minalistic not full of plugins and guis, so better ;) We tebuilt emacs-git in case there was a bug in previous session tested emacs to make sure it works well, then rebuilt gettext 2-3 times, same problem. So for now we let the e2fsprogs go by using arch/gettext and this is the 1st time we have done such a thing in 5 years. All the research we have done on this ends in dead ends and same problem. We can''t find specific documentation for those modules, and the error comes up for 4-5 languages, is it specific to them or the builder quits after the 5th error?
It is pretty much the same as the last rc I haven't seen anything worth talking about. As a major release it is build on wlroots19 and the most notable change was that split colors on title bar 😀
% more /usr/share/doc/labwc/NEWS.md
<br />- Add client `lab-sensible-terminal` and add a `Terminal` entry to the default
root-menu @johanmalm [#2877]
- Enhance `-v|--version` option by adding feature flags like `+xwayland -rsvg`.
@Consolatis [#2873]
- Send drm leases to XWayland clients. This requires XWayland >= 21.1.9.
@Consolatis [#553] [#2873]
- Add `<windowRule iconPriority="client|server">`. @Consolatis @tokyo4j [#2839]
- Support theme colors defined by X11-color-names and '#rgb' syntax @jlindgren90
[#2686]
- Support basic vertical titlebar gradients and the additional theme options
listed below. @jlindgren90 [#2686]
The problem with gettext encountered when building e2fs-progs first then icewm then today on mercurial. Because gettext needs dbus installed to build, and since dbus is always on Arch base not on out building base, and since we opted to build dbus recently with selinux enabled, libselinux must be present when using gettext to build. So we are adding it as a running dependency but make a note of it before -03 comes out if you are building something requiring gettext.
Why is dbus so necessary in building documents for software translated in languages or other texts internationalized ... your guess is as bad as mine ! Freaking snitch crawls everywhere
The cost of breaking things down to elements and not being as sloppy as Arch
Last night I got a -testing batch of upgrades to do but was too late to even start, so saved the list and started today. Before starting I run the script that picks up Arch upgrades again and compared to see what has come up more. Mercurial and curl. Because everything else was on -testing and mercurial was stable I wondered whether they actually build on a stable environment or on -testing from last night? So yes, when building something that is to bypass testing and be placed straight to stable they build on a stable environment, even though a bunch (curl libxml2) were upgraded on testing.
They say you can't teach an old dog new tricks, this dog keeps learning and there is so much more and so little time left ...
Well done! It's like finding a needle in a haystack. Now I'm going to rebuild gettext and then build e2fsprogs. I'm falling behind in my building. I'm giving up on gcc for now. My best success was the first try and now I really wished that I didn't immediately wipe it clean.
Those arch guys will do anything to get a package to compile. I see trouble ahead...
They say you can't teach an old dog new tricks, this dog keeps learning and there is so much more and so little time left ...
just add depends=(...libselinux ..) on the list, the build remains the same, so when gettext is installed to build something else libselinux is added as dependency.
There is curl libxml2 ffmpeg libplacebo apparmor .... vulkan-hea .. vulkan-.. ... mercurial all lined up for upgrading in case you want to wait.
Email from HP has just landed in my inbox at work, trumpeting their acquisition of Juniper. Apparently, it's all about "creating the industry's first secure, AI-native network purpose-built with AI and for AI to deliver exceptional end user and operator experiences"...
MeidasTouch host Ben Meiselas reports on Donald Trump appearing to suffer new cognitive episodes in public that he can’t hide. Visit https://meidasplus.com f...
#Viena és la ciutat amb el parc d’#habitatge públic més gran d’Europa.
El preu del lloguer està al voltant de 8 euros el metre quadrat, la meitat que a #Barcelona.
El truc: més del 40% del parc d’habitatge és públic o en #cooperativa i de lloguer. Aquí no arriba a l'1%...
Ens mostren quin és el camí. Per això és tan important la feina de @sostrecivic per demostrar que hi ha una tercera via en política d'habitatge no especulativa ni depenent de qui governa.
In Trump’s America, warning a family that ICE is coming could get you prosecuted. But storming the Capitol? Pardoned. she added. “If you obstruct or assault our law enforcement, we will hunt you down and you will be prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law,” she added.
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem is coming after the people who dare lend a helping hand to immigrants.�
Noem shared a CNN segment to X on Tuesday that showed an up-and-coming app designed ...
Why was Galileo put on trial for believing the sun was the center of our solar system (heliocentrism)? This video looks at Renaissance science, Copernicus, G...
@prosario2000, it's correct that Galileo wasn't tortured by the inquisition, but it would have been ocurred if he had continued with his theory. At least Galileo was FORGIVEN the heresy by the church in 1992, almost 500 years later
The YAF announced a large-scale missile and drone attack on several Israeli targets on 7 July, hours after a series of heavy Israeli airstrikes on Yemen overnight.
“In response to this aggression, and in continued support of the oppressed Palestinian people, the Missile Force and the Air Force of the Yemeni Armed Forces carried out a joint precision military operation involving eleven missiles and drones,” the YAF said.
Aujourd’hui, ce long parcours n’est plus nécessaire. La majorité des#Allemands s’est convertie au #sionisme, se passant de la circoncision ou de toute démarche religieuse. Une partie de la «gauche» allemande est composée d’hommes en quête d’une identité qu’ils ont su trouver dans l’image d’ #Israël. Ils parlent comme Noa Tishby, s’enveloppent dans des drapeaux de l’Etat israélien ou de son armée, assistent à des spectacles de danses folkloriques pour fêter les relations diplomatiques, et sauvent les juifs de «l’antisémitisme».
Selon des données publiées dans le magazine israélien berlinois Spitz (article supprimé par la suite), plus de la moitié des plaintes pour actes antisémites en Allemagne proviennent par exemple d’Allemands chrétiens, dont les grands-parents étaient nazis, qui se disent agressés par des juifs manifestant contre Israël. Il semblerait que les petits-enfants de #nazis sont très sensibles aux «attaques antisémites» censées les viser, surtout si elles viennent de juifs ou d’Israéliens. Cela blesse leurs sentiments et trouble leur identité. Le journaliste d’Haaretz Itay Mashiach, qui a enquêté sur les chiffres prétendument élevés de l’ #antisémitisme en #Allemagne, a découvert qu’ils sont largement manipulés, sans transparence, souvent basés sur des échanges de mails avec une seule personne – chaque mail étant compté comme un «incident antisémite».
Autre exemple : le professeur d’histoire Moshe Zimmermann a déclaré devant le parlement du Land de Saxe que la leçon tirée de la Shoah se devait d’être universelle – et qu’elle serait donc valable aussi pour Israël. L’Office fédéral de surveillance de l’antisémitisme a décidé que cette déclaration équivalait à comparer Israël au régime nazi, et l’a classé comme «incident antisémite». Comme ces institutions sont conscientes du fait qu’elles se ridiculisent, elles n’ont pas précisé qu’il s’agissait d’un juif israélien (issu d’une famille de survivants de la Shoah allemande) mais le décrivent comme un simple «orateur». C’est aussi le cas pour tout juif ayant manifesté contre le génocide à Gaza depuis le 7 octobre avec une pancarte s’identifiant comme tel: tous les membres de l’organisation Jüdische Stimme (Voix Juive pour la Paix) et d’autres non affiliés ont été arrêtés et ont fait l’objet d’accusations (d’incitation ou d’usage de symboles inconstitutionnels) qui ont par la suite été levées. J’ai moi-même été arrêtée cinq fois. Ces cas nourrissent les statistiques des «incidents antisémites en #Allemagne».
Iris Hefetz publié en hébreu le 30 juin 2025 sur le site de la revue «Mekomit» et repris par le collectif «Tsedek».
This tool guides you to connect specific skills with potential niches. By seeing how your strengths can solve real problems, you’ll discover niche ideas that align perfectly with what you do best.
STEP 1: LIST YOUR CORE SKILLS Take the 2–3 core skills identified in your “Skill Discovery & Reflection Workbook.” Restate them briefly below.
STEP 2: BRAINSTORM NICHES FOR EACH SKILL Think of at least one niche or audience that could benefit from each skill. Don’t overthink—just let ideas flow.
STEP 3: LINK SKILLS & PASSION Recall the passions identified in previous lessons. Match them with your skills to see where excitement and ability intersect.
WHICH SKILL-PASSION PAIRS STAND OUT?
DOES A SPECIFIC AUDIENCE OR PROBLEM IMMEDIATELY COME TO MIND?
STEP 4: EVALUATE MARKET NEED For each skill-niche idea, quickly assess if there’s market demand—people seeking solutions or willing to pay for help.
WHICH SKILL-NICHE COMBINATIONS SHOW OBVIOUS DEMAND?
HOW CAN YOU VALIDATE FURTHER (FORUM SEARCH, COMPETITOR RESEARCH, SIMPLE SURVEY)?
STEP 5: SELECT YOUR TOP 2–3 SKILL-ALIGNED NICHES From the brainstorm, choose the most promising niches where your skill, passion, and potential market need overlap.
STEP 6: NEXT STEPS & ACTION PLAN Decide how you’ll investigate or test these niche ideas (e.g., run a small survey, try a mini-project, gather beta testers).
ACTION:
ACTION:
ACTION:
WHEN WILL YOU COMPLETE THESE ACTIONS?
CONCLUSION: This SKILL-TO-NICHE MAPPING TOOL shows you how to leverage your key abilities for markets that value them. By combining your skills, passion, and market demand, you’ll land on a niche idea that truly resonates—and that’s where meaningful success can flourish.
Actually reading, and enjoying, this book "Nice white ladies: The truth about white supremacy. Our role in it. And how can we help to dismantle it" by Jesse Daniels.
Honestly I am 50 years old and NOW I'm learning about black,Latin, first nation women oppression (basically in the US) and our role in colonialism. It's never to late to learn and change. #mastodonbooks #dismantlewhitesupremacy #womensrights
"TURQUIE / KURDISTAN – Lors d’un raid policier mené au domicile d’un couple kurde du district de Van / Saray, la police a battu Nevzat Hamzaoğulları et menacé de mort son épouse. Une descente a été menée hier matin dans le quartier de Serav (Saray) à Wan, au domicile du couple Gülçin et
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported that, during the past night (Sunday), approximately 20 fighter jets conducted strikes against targets belonging to the Houthi regime in the ports of Al Hudaydah, Ras Isa, Salif, and at the Ras Kanatib power station, employing over 50 munitions.
🌐 Découvrez Le Comptoir du Libre, la plateforme collaborative qui recense les logiciels libres métiers utiles aux services publics !
Trouvez vos outils, partagez vos expériences et identifiez vos partenaires parmi près de 370 prestataires. 🤝
Initiative de l'ADULLACT, ce catalogue centralise et promeut les logiciels libres pour les administrations, facilitant la mutualisation des ressources informatiques publiques. 🔄
📢 Yemeni Armed Forces announced that they had launched a joint military operation with 11 missiles and drones targeting Ben Gurion Airport (TLV), Ashdod Airport, Ashdod Port, Ashkelon power station, and Eilat Port in response to Israeli attacks on #yemen and in continued support of #gaza
Estoy convencido de que en el futuro veremos el actual consenso europeo sobre la #inmigración de la misma manera que vemos hoy el consenso europeo sobre la austeridad en 2011. Y, como ahora, el sufrimiento que vemos y veremos no habrá servido para nada en absoluto
Una investigación de varios medios, entre ellos EL PAÍS, revela que la agencia europea de fronteras facilitó a la entidad policial información indiscriminada de miles de personas a partir de entrevistas sin garantías a los recién llegados a Europa
Provided to YouTube by Columbia Not Dark Yet · Bob Dylan Time Out Of Mind ℗ 1997 Columbia Records, a division of Sony Music Entertainment Released on: 19...
Amazing history of the "urinary leash" on women. Employers didn't have to legally supply a separate Ladies Loo until 1992. That's only 33 years ago! And after all those years of campaigning, it was too much for the Incels who control society, they are happy to use "tranz" as a method to re-apply the urinary leash. Back to the home, you uppity sluts! (One of the slogans the Troons used to shout at us was "Go Home")! wash.leeds.ac.uk/womens-rights…
Hey Aral, I pay a hosting co run by a friend of a friend for basic hosting with cPanel etc... and I wanna try running kitten but couldn't figure out how to upload source and install - are there instructions for that (or have I misunderstood what I can do with kitten?).
@jaystephens Kitten’s pretty much designed to run either on a tiny VPS or a single board computer. Is yours shared hosting? If it’s a VPS, all you have to do is install Kitten and then kitten deploy <https url of app’s git repo>. Catalyst, the Small Web hosting solution will eventually make this seamless.
yes shared hosting... I'll get around to looking for an affordable tiny vps... I have some raspberry pis and such at home but no way of obtaining an affordable static IP.
To get it to work I did, fine to package it for arch-like linux I haven't figured out yet. Other than what is on dist what else should be packaged, should tests be run and included, examples, docs, ...
And that example counter, should it be made and included in the pkg as sample instead of reading the web page and making it?
The unfortunate part of packaging it is having to rename it to something else as kitty and kitten are used by this crappy go terminal tty shell terminfo pkg.
I followed and hoped for stability and development of gnunet for many years .. I gave up, it could never escape its small group of peers of contributors into a mass used alternative.
Still the idea of it alone is very liberating and revealing, of how hard it is to escape corporate net dictatorship
One of the best things about NA.S is that lots of us love music.
I may not like this or that genre, but when I see people posting music they love, I know they're going to find others that do as well and bond over it.
Could wax poetic about music forever. I'll leave it at, people like music and that's cool.
AAAAAAAAAAAAAA 
💨💨💨
💕
Bilal Barakat 🍉
in reply to oatmeal • • •In summary: DellaPergola utterly embarrasses himself with this clown-level "critique" of the Gaza Mortality Survey. The arguments presented are without exception mumbo-jumbo, scientifically speaking. In essence, apart from a number of points where he is just flat out methodologically incorrect and fails to spot high school-level errors in his argument (such as plain failing to understand what the Guillot et al. study he tries to cite in his support actually did), he just points to potential sources of *uncertainty* and then assumes, with absolute zero evidence or compelling argument whatsoever, pulling numbers straight out of his arse, that all of these uncertainties must necessarily work in the direction of an overestimate of deaths, while systematically neglecting to discuss any of the sources of sampling bias that do, in fact, *necessarily* contribute to an *under*estimation (chiefly that completely destroyed households can no longer be sampled).
This piece is science-free, embarrassingly illiterate (both statistically and literally in terms of reading comprehension applied to other studies) piece of garbage. DellaPergola outs himself as someone utterly incapable of letting facts get in the way of his racist biases.
***
“The first and most self-evident way to estimate the number of dead is by counting the bodies that arrive at morgues or are buried. Astoundingly, according to Gazan sources, this simple action was never performed.”
FALSE. In the beginning, those were the ONLY deaths that were counted.
"Granted, some of the bodies are still buried under destroyed buildings. But even in the most horrific sanitary conditions, it's inconceivable that there are still tens of thousands of buried bodies 21 months after the fighting began."
FALSE. This ignores that Israel has systematically destroyed the heavy machinery necessary to recover them. The passing of time (under bombardment) does not help shifting tons of concrete by hand.
"And at least according to the IDF, residents were warned to evacuate their homes before heavy bombs were launched.”
FFS. This is 100% propaganda. Israel randomly does this sometimes to provide its idiot apologists with the licence to claim this, but it is completely untrue that this is in any way consistently applied.
"The respondents (one person in each family) were asked about what has happened to their relatives since the war began.”
FALSE. They were asked not about their "relatives", but about the members of their own pre-Oct 7 HOUSEHOLD. For someone attempting a critique of the study's methodology, it is beyond embarrassing to not even bother to represent it correctly. There is indeed an auxiliary question about deaths in the wider family, but that's not what the study's published results are based on.
"The relative completing the survey could report the deceased adult because he or she will think of the original family composition."
FALSE. Again, DellaPergola embarrassingly doesn't even understand how the study proceeded. Respondents were in fact *required* to respond in terms of their original household composition, rendering his whole line of critique moot.
Claim: A stopping rule of 10 households in each sampling unit creates a distortion.
FALSE. Stopping after a given number of interviews WITHIN in a random sampling unit does not by itself undermine “the principle of randomness" at all, nor does selecting an arbitrary adult household member, *because any one of them would be responding with respect to the same household*. DellaPergola does not seem to understand how survey sampling works. The claim that households more likely to have been present and willing to respond are more likely to have experienced a violent death is pulled completely out of thin air, without even pretending to offer an empirical or a priori argument. One could just as easily argue that households with fewer adults (because some have been killed) are more likely to have the surviving adults away from home at a given time.
"A comparison of this sort (see the article by Michel Guillot and colleagues that was published in the Lancet in January 2025) identified 34,344 people who were killed (21,974 men and 12,370 women) between October 7, 2023 and August 31, 2024, based on detailed checks by the Health Ministry.”
FALSE. DellaPergola is illiterate, or perhaps more likely, didn't bother to even read as much as the *abstract* of the Guillot et al. paper. What they actually said is that of the 45,936 reported total number of fatalities at the time, they found 64.4% on the refugee register, which, given that the share of refugees in the total population is 65.7%, CONFIRMS THE 45,936 as the refugee+non-refugee total. DellaPergola tries to claim that Guillot reduced the estimate down to the number of fatalities who were *also* refugees. This is a horrendously embarrassing mistake on his part.
"Of these, 75,200 were killed directly by wartime operations, while between 8,000 and 9,000 died from circumstances that aren't directly connected to the army's operations (and all this is on top of the 6,000 to 7,000 who die in an ordinary year)."
FALSE. The 8k-9k are about deaths not from fighting, but from not receiving medical aid for disease etc. The notion that such deaths e.g., from starvation, or because Israel systematically destroyed dialysis centres, “aren't directly connected to the [Israeli] army's operations" is obvious nonsense.
"In other words, the division and redefinition of households as a result of the state of emergency in Gaza may cause the same death to be reported two or three times.”
FALSE. This is *at best* sloppy wording. For the same death to ACTUALLY be double-counted, two people from the same pre-Oct 7 household would have to be among the survey respondents in different households in the current sample. What he probably *meant* was that those deaths have a higher probability of being reported in the sample. This requires a lot of assumptions, such as that households with a death are more likely to have been split apart. Which under normal circumstances might sound like commonsense, because conditional on a violent death in the household, it was certainly exposed to violence that may have caused a split. But since in Gaza *all* households have been displaced, that argument doesn't work very well. Also, all else being equal, having lost an adult household member reduces the remaining size of the household and therefore the possibility for it to split.
The vastly more obvious source of NEGATIVE bias stemming from household structure is that the large number of households where *all* adult members have been killed are systematically excluded from the sample. But of course, DellaPergola doesn't want to talk about *that*.
"They also provide a contradictory figure from another source regarding the number of Gazan prisoners captured by Israel – 3,436.”
This represents the number of prisoners from Gaza at a single point in time (Source: jpost.com/israel-news/article-…). DellaPergola seems to miss that what is at stake for comparison with the survey finding is the number imprisoned *at any time* during the survey fieldwork period. Moreover, the number he quotes refers only to ‘unlawful combatants' not *all* prisoners from Gaza, or detainees from Gaza who are held in military camps under conditions of enforced disappearance - unlike the survey question.
" Since the same ratio must also apply to the survey's estimate of deaths, the latter number should fall from 91,400 to 34,380."
FALSE. There is absolute no reason why the factor by which the number of prisoners is misestimated - never mind that he is completely wrong in quantifying that factor, see above - ‘must' be the same as for deaths. For someone criticising the rigour of another study's methodology, “I'm going to take one of their numbers and multiply it with a fudge factor" is one hell of a suggestion for how to "improve" the study…
Thousands of Palestinians imprisoned without trial, NGOs report | The Jerusalem Post
The Jerusalem Post | JPost.comBilal Barakat 🍉
in reply to Bilal Barakat 🍉 • • •To put the point about the Guillot paper in plain language:
DellaPergola central argument is:
The one study (Guillot et al. 2025) that checked the Ministry of Health list of 46k fatalities (at the time) name by name could only confirm 34k of them, so I want to use that number as an anchor for the 'true' number that Spagat et al. failed to correctly replicate.
What Guillot et al. ACTUALLY found was:
Roughly two-thirds of Gazans are UNRWA-registered refugees, and we could find around two-thirds of the official deaths, namely 34k, on the refugee register, which matches the population total and confirms that the total number of 46k is approximately correct.
Note that this is not buried deep inside the Guillot et al. paper. It's right there literally in the abstract, proving that DellaPergola is either blinded by bias, incompetent, or wilfully misrepresenting that study.
oatmeal
in reply to Bilal Barakat 🍉 • • •I saw that but to be fair DellaPegola sort of indicates it's a number verified against UNRWA's data ("including lists of refugees entitled to UN assistance"). This also BTW seem to support Hamas' own data..., contracting his claims their numbers can't be trusted.
But regardless, it's clear that DellaPergola doesn't engage with evidence in the Lancet studies documenting systematic under-reporting.
Bilal Barakat 🍉
in reply to oatmeal • • •oatmeal
in reply to Bilal Barakat 🍉 • • •oatmeal
in reply to oatmeal • • •apropos... IDF Reservist on Sky News:
[...] They don't really talk to you about civilians that may come to your place. Like I was in the Netzarim road and they say, "If someone comes to here, it means that he knows he shouldn't be there and if he still comes, it means he's a terrorist." But I don't ... this is like what they tell you, but I don't really think it's true. They might be shot, they might be captured. really depends on like the day the mood of the commander...
@palestine
@israel
#GazaGenocide #SkyNews #IDF #IsraelWarCrimes
oatmeal
in reply to oatmeal • • •[follow up]
Professor Michael Spagat responds to criticism of the Gaza Mortality Survey that estimated around 100,000 deaths. He addresses multiple errors in critic Sergio DellaPergola’s analysis, clarifying that Gaza’s Health Ministry primarily uses hospital morgue data, not just family reports. Independent researchers have verified the ministry’s detailed casualty lists as reliable. Spagat explains the survey’s systematic sampling methodology and notes that DellaPergola contradicted himself by first dismissing then later citing the same Health Ministry data. The survey found evidence of significant undercounting, with many deaths unrecorded due to strict documentation requirements and logistical challenges.
[…] DellaPergola continues to critique our sampling procedures, which are described briefly in the body of the article and in more detail in its appendix. He writes that we explained that “once a certain geographic counting cell reached ten households that agreed to participate, the count there was considered complete.” But in practice the survey was conducted as follows: let’s assume that a randomly selected sampling point includes 100 households in tents. The tents are numbered from 1 to 100, and a random number is chosen from them, between 1 and 10. If the number chosen is 4, the interviewers will approach households 4, 14, 24, and so on until 94. If all tent residents agree to be interviewed, that sampling point is finished. If there are refusals — which were rare — the interviewing team will start over from a different random starting point. This is as random as it can be, and willingness to participate in the survey was not a significant factor in it.
Hebrew haaretz.co.il/opinions/2025-07… or archive.is/tqFYG
@academicchatter @palestine @israel
כן, בעזה נהרגו כבר כ–100 אלף בני אדם
מייקל ספאגט (הארץ)Bilal Barakat 🍉
in reply to oatmeal • • •