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I see why this theory is compelling, but I think think it will work out this way. Trump is in a tricky corner, if he invades Iran then the next presidential election goes to whoever is against him - and the Left has made it very clear that if he ever strays too far from the Whitehouse, he's going to prison. So his approval rating is a Sword of Damocles.
New York and California may hate him, but they don't have the muscle and belligerence to start an actual civil war. The people who COULD start a civil war mostly don't mind him, and if he pisses them off then he ends up in the unfortunate situation of having pissed off *everyone*, so the "civil war" is "America vs. Trump".
It's hard to read, but I think American Civil War died when the elites decided to get behind Trump. During Biden the US was a powderkeg, and if they had blatantly rigged the election for Kamala then things could have gone kinetic in a real hurry. I think what saved America was Oct7, because it became clear that if America descends into civil war, Iran will wipe out Israel, so everyone with Israeli connections agreed that stabilizing the US is priority number one.
Israel does have superior technology, but Iran has 90 million people who are excited at the prospect of fighting. Israelis have been shown to be western people who are not interested in dying over some geopolitical spat, so if it ever comes to a ground war, Israel is in serious trouble.
I think under Biden things got close. Recall the Texas boarder crisis when Texas national guard began defending the border and throwing the federal government out, and sent a nasty letter to Washington and a half dozen other states signed it.
If that had escalated further, it's possible that we could have had secession - which the fedgov might have refused to accept, leading to a second civil war.
But the fedgov seems to have been very strategic about it, calming things down and then later allowing Trump to be president which seriously defused most of the issues.
Agree with your point, Democrats are not going to do anything.
Silicon Valley is funny because while it's ostensibly deep blue, the power players are connected to Thiel, Musk, Andreassen, etc, who are in turn connected to Trump. So in many ways Trump has proven the best antidote to potential civil war...
That's always been the belief in Washington, but I think it is hubris. The same people thought Russia would be bankrupt within 6 months, so I don't give them too much credit.
I wouldn't call it over yet. It's always easier to fight Iran in Lebanon and the Israeli border compared to fighting them in their own mountains, because then they need logistical support. I think right now, this war will be left on the back burner until Russia needs to distract the US from Ukraine, then they will re-supply Iran and encourage them to launch another rocket attack...
The problem is there is no "California" to secede, without going through the Silicon Valley power players, who will most likely veto it.
Also the US government has a terrifying array of "dirty tricks" they can use to harm people: From releasing diseases, to wild fires, to sending special forces to pose as rioters and burn cities, their arsenal is as frightening as their willingness to use it.
The reason why they're hemmed in when it comes to e.g. Texas is because those special forces are at risk of mutiny if they try to use them against Christians / Conservatives.
I'm not going to pontificate on how long Russia can last and how much reserves they have, because so many people have been so wrong on this before.
For what it's worth, the Russian propaganda was also completely wrong. But still it seems that one of their tricks is convincing others to underestimate them, so I refuse to assume that there's any knowable date when they will run out of resources...
The EU is in a terrible situation for a couple of reasons:
1. A decade ago they imported millions of immigrants from Africa and the Middle east - a lot of these people are violent and lawless as one would expect, and now there are mass protests because they occasionally rape white women. This has made European governments extraordinarily unpopular to the point that multiple EU governments are close to outright civil war - or at least close enough that forced conscription is completely off the table, so sending manpower to Ukraine is essentially impossible.
2. Europe is largely Leftist, and Islam/Iran have been quite active in courting the Left, and Israel has been relatively open about the genocide of the Palestinians which upsets the Left. And the aforementioned millions of immigrants from Africa and the Middle east are extremely anti-Israel, so European governments feel boxed in to not be seen supporting Israel in any meaningful way.
So basically I wouldn't rely on Europe to do much of anything, they're boxed in.
At risk of tautologizing tautologies, Europe is like Europe, Canada is like Canada, and California is like California.
But a concrete example of this is Islam and antisemitism, fairly widespread in Europe but rare in California.
California is a land of paradoxes. The ostensibly blue state that gave us Nixon and Regan. It's blue now because of a gerontocracy and their Mexican servants, but gerontocracy is conservative (even reactionary), they will never accept anything as crazy as secession.
Like I said before, there's a fairly high chance that California flips red again in the coming years.
I'm glad my analysis skills aren't completely off 😀 California is such a complex region, honestly I feel more confident talking about the middle east lol.
The left in Europe likes Ukraine just enough to put a flag in their profile, but that's it. What they really care about is financial aid because they all depend on the state for their income.
The right likes military, and would be prepared to impose compulsory service FOR THE RIGHT LEADER. But they have no interest in the EU, they would rather their nations be independent and they have no interests beyond their own national borders.
The people who ACTUALLY care about Ukraine are the European leaders, or Court Eunuchs. They're neither right nor left, they're liked by no one, but they win because (for now) they're hated less than the sides hate each other. Their support for Ukraine is based on the fact that they're terrified of civil war and their nightmare is that Ukraine collapses and dumps tens of thousands of battle-hardened ASOP Nazis into Europe. These people have been betrayed by the centrists and so they will side with the extreme right and overthrow the European governments leading to the collapse of the EU.
Basically Europe can't do anything because they're in a stalemate.
Californian leftism is just completely different from European leftism. Another example is that California is female-dominated (because it's American) and Europe is male-dominated.
My point is it's just way too dangerous to make these types of generalizations.
> You're underestimating young people, and I said "if".
But those are not the Democrat voters. The Democrat voters are elderly people and their Mexican servants. And the Mexicans are on the fence, which is why I can easily see California flipping red in the next election.
Jean Béliveau was one of the greatest players to ever lace up skates in the NHL. Known as Le Gros Bill, he was loved not only by his fans and teammates, but by players on other teams for his class and grace. This is the story of one amazing player.
#tuckercarlson #debate Are you thinking critically about the news you consume? Go to https://ground.news/Smith to be better informed. Save 40% off unlimited ...
How long has our weather been modified? Specifically, by whom? Who picked what area of the country, specific locates at any given time, city & state that was going to suffer with what kind of weather, e.g., hot as hell, cold as the Antarctic, systems of tornadoes, earthquakes, hurricanes with & without tornadoes, floods, WMDs like Lahaina, forest fires via drones & chemicals via ...
chemtrails, etc. Feel free to add your own description(s).
Today is Aug 31; I just got into my car that was sitting in the sun. Inside temp of my car was 120 when I got into it. It cooled down to a toasty 104 after the air came on.
Epidemiologist and human microbiome scientist Wang Leyao has returned to China, joining the Shenzhen Medical Academy of Research and Translation (Smart) as a senior research fellow at the Institute of Human Immunology. This move comes in response to significant funding cuts implemented by the White House that have affected many researchers in the United States.
یکی از اعضای هیئت ایتالیایی که اخیراً از روسیۀ شوروی بازگشته بود، به کارگران تورین خبر داد که سکویی که در کرونشتات برای استقبال از این هیئت برپا شده بود، با بنری آذین یافته بود که بر روی آن نوشته شده بود: «زنده باد اعتصاب عمومی آوریل ۱۹۲۰ تورین!»
"A postwar plan for Gaza circulating within the Trump adm. would turn it into a trusteeship administered by the U.S. for at least 10 years while it is transformed into a gleaming tourism resort and high-tech manufacturing and technology hub.
It purports to require no U.S. govt funding and offers significant profit to investors. The plan envision a nearly fourfold return on a $100 billion investment after 10 years."
More on the "Gaza Reconstitution, Economic Acceleration and Transformation Trust (GREAT)" -
"The 38-page prospectus envisions at least a temporary relocation of all of Gaza’s more than 2 million population, either through what it calls “voluntary” departures to another country or into restricted, secured zones inside the enclave during reconstruction."
This doesAI graphic use - it looks like something from the 60s. Grotesque collaboration and completely unsurprising. It will never happen They all hate one another too much and are all failures in their own unique colossal and costly ways. Disgusting.
An hour ago, a German Boeing 747-200F cargo plane landed at Ben Gurion Airport.
The content of the cargo plane is unknown, but unofficial reports claim that it delivered spare parts and equipment for #IDF that is facing difficulties keeping their tanks and armored vehicles running in #Gaza, #Lebanon and #Syria.
"Swedish activist Greta Thunberg and Portuguese left-wing politician Mariana Mortagua were among hundreds of people from 44 countries due to depart from several ports to Gaza as part of the Global Sumud Flotilla. Sumud means 'perseverance' in Arabic."
Pro-Palestinian activists preparing to set sail on Sunday (August 31) for Gaza in dozens of boats carrying aid, have called on governments to pressure Israel...
The aim of the Press Releases were to provide a source for domestic and global news on certain strikes, class struggle prisoners, domestic and international solidarity and fundraising campaigns.
time to pull out my rebuilt head. can't remember exactly what i did to it, other than lapped valves, new seals, and ported and polished runners. i think i set the valve lash but probably should double check it
I get this weird feeling when I'm visiting a relative's home like "I'm not going to be here for too long" and for some reason I'm feeling that in my own home
The video begins with a football player wearing a green jersey with the number 80, standing on a field in a stadium filled with spectators. The player is wearing a black cap with a logo and a helmet, and the jersey features patches for 'Bumper Bumper' and 'NexGen.' The scene transitions to another player in a green jersey with the number 7, also in a stadium setting, with the crowd visible in the background. The video then shifts to a player in a green jersey with the number 1, running on the field, with a blurred stadium background. The scene changes to a close-up of the same player, now wearing a helmet, with a reflective visor showing a stadium view. The video concludes with two men in suits holding microphones with the ESPN logo, standing in front of a cityscape backdrop, suggesting a sports broadcast setting.
Provided by @altbot, generated privately and locally using Ovis2-8B
That's not appropriate dress for a passenger plane. Beach, yes, fine but not a plane. Unless it's my plane and you can go butt ass naked for all I care. My plane, my rules. In public, it's the public rules.
なんですけど 
Rose
in reply to Caleb James DeLisle • • •Caleb James DeLisle
Unknown parent • • •Caleb James DeLisle
Unknown parent • • •I think under Biden things got close. Recall the Texas boarder crisis when Texas national guard began defending the border and throwing the federal government out, and sent a nasty letter to Washington and a half dozen other states signed it.
If that had escalated further, it's possible that we could have had secession - which the fedgov might have refused to accept, leading to a second civil war.
But the fedgov seems to have been very strategic about it, calming things down and then later allowing Trump to be president which seriously defused most of the issues.
Agree with your point, Democrats are not going to do anything.
Caleb James DeLisle
Unknown parent • • •Caleb James DeLisle
Unknown parent • • •> Most Iranians do not support Iran
That's always been the belief in Washington, but I think it is hubris. The same people thought Russia would be bankrupt within 6 months, so I don't give them too much credit.
Caleb James DeLisle
Unknown parent • • •Caleb James DeLisle
Unknown parent • • •The problem is there is no "California" to secede, without going through the Silicon Valley power players, who will most likely veto it.
Also the US government has a terrifying array of "dirty tricks" they can use to harm people: From releasing diseases, to wild fires, to sending special forces to pose as rioters and burn cities, their arsenal is as frightening as their willingness to use it.
The reason why they're hemmed in when it comes to e.g. Texas is because those special forces are at risk of mutiny if they try to use them against Christians / Conservatives.
bronze reshared this.
Caleb James DeLisle
Unknown parent • • •I'm not going to pontificate on how long Russia can last and how much reserves they have, because so many people have been so wrong on this before.
For what it's worth, the Russian propaganda was also completely wrong. But still it seems that one of their tricks is convincing others to underestimate them, so I refuse to assume that there's any knowable date when they will run out of resources...
Caleb James DeLisle
Unknown parent • • •> California is a blue state
No, California is fractal in it's complexity, and I can't even begin to scratch the surface of it in a fedi post.
There is maybe a 30% chance that the next governor of California is a Republican.
Caleb James DeLisle
Unknown parent • • •The EU is in a terrible situation for a couple of reasons:
1. A decade ago they imported millions of immigrants from Africa and the Middle east - a lot of these people are violent and lawless as one would expect, and now there are mass protests because they occasionally rape white women. This has made European governments extraordinarily unpopular to the point that multiple EU governments are close to outright civil war - or at least close enough that forced conscription is completely off the table, so sending manpower to Ukraine is essentially impossible.
2. Europe is largely Leftist, and Islam/Iran have been quite active in courting the Left, and Israel has been relatively open about the genocide of the Palestinians which upsets the Left. And the aforementioned millions of immigrants from Africa and the Middle east are extremely anti-Israel, so European governments feel boxed in to not be seen supporting Israel in any meaningful way.
So basically I wouldn't rely on Europe to do much of anything, they're boxed in.
Caleb James DeLisle
Unknown parent • • •At risk of tautologizing tautologies, Europe is like Europe, Canada is like Canada, and California is like California.
But a concrete example of this is Islam and antisemitism, fairly widespread in Europe but rare in California.
California is a land of paradoxes. The ostensibly blue state that gave us Nixon and Regan. It's blue now because of a gerontocracy and their Mexican servants, but gerontocracy is conservative (even reactionary), they will never accept anything as crazy as secession.
Like I said before, there's a fairly high chance that California flips red again in the coming years.
Caleb James DeLisle
Unknown parent • • •California is such a complex region, honestly I feel more confident talking about the middle east lol.
Caleb James DeLisle
Unknown parent • • •You're mixing things that don't mix.
The left in Europe likes Ukraine just enough to put a flag in their profile, but that's it. What they really care about is financial aid because they all depend on the state for their income.
The right likes military, and would be prepared to impose compulsory service FOR THE RIGHT LEADER. But they have no interest in the EU, they would rather their nations be independent and they have no interests beyond their own national borders.
The people who ACTUALLY care about Ukraine are the European leaders, or Court Eunuchs. They're neither right nor left, they're liked by no one, but they win because (for now) they're hated less than the sides hate each other. Their support for Ukraine is based on the fact that they're terrified of civil war and their nightmare is that Ukraine collapses and dumps tens of thousands of battle-hardened ASOP Nazis into Europe. These people have been betrayed by the centrists and so they will side with the extreme right and overthrow the European governments leading to the collapse of the EU.
Basically Europe can't do anything because they're in a stalemate.
Caleb James DeLisle
Unknown parent • • •> What are you insinuating?
Californian leftism is just completely different from European leftism. Another example is that California is female-dominated (because it's American) and Europe is male-dominated.
My point is it's just way too dangerous to make these types of generalizations.
> You're underestimating young people, and I said "if".
But those are not the Democrat voters. The Democrat voters are elderly people and their Mexican servants. And the Mexicans are on the fence, which is why I can easily see California flipping red in the next election.
Caleb James DeLisle
Unknown parent • • •> This is bordering on flat out bigotry
If something is factually correct, I couldn't possibly care less if it's "bigoted", "racist" or "hate".