Since 1972, CIA and DoD research indicates that premonition, or precognition, appears to be weak in some, strong in others, and extraordinary in a rare few. In official Defense Department literature sensemaking is defined as “a motivated continuous effort to understand connections (which can be among people, places, and events) in order to anticipate their trajectories and act effectively.” time.com/4721715/phenomena-ann…
Who are Superforecasters?
Developed through the Good Judgment Project (GJP), led by Philip Tetlock, Barbara Mellers, and Don Moore, they emerged from an IARPA forecasting tournament (2011–2015), outpacing seasoned intelligence analysts—even those with access to classified data—by about 30–72%
On hundreds of real-world predictions (geopolitics, economics, epidemiology), professional Superforecasters average around 79% accuracy, placing the correct outcome as most probable seven out of ten times
They predict critical inflection points—like the Fed rate changes or pandemic developments—months to over a year in advance, often earlier than traditional markets or experts
Superforecasters apply structured thinking and probabilistic clarity, using base rates to temper overconfidence. They engage in team discussions to refine individual judgments through diverse perspectives. Constant calibration and scoring provide feedback loops that sharpen accuracy over time. Their open-minded “fox” mindset emphasizes adaptability and learning over rigid ideology.
For broad, global, real-world event prediction, Superforecasters from the Good Judgment Project consistently outperform both traditional experts and AI models. Their success is rooted in rigorous methodology—not intuition or insider knowledge.
goodjudgment.com/resources/the…
The Superforecasters’ Track Record - Good Judgment
Superforecasters represented the cream of the crop of the Good Judgment Project forecasters. And they’ve proven themselves time and time again since turning professional in 2015.Good Judgment Inc
xianc78
in reply to Caleb James DeLisle • • •Caleb James DeLisle
in reply to xianc78 • • •That wasn't oil vapors, that was water...
I'd like to be able to burn off used motor oil in a diesel generator and make use of its energy content. I don't want to send it through the injection pump because then I have to clean it, so my answer is to cover the exhaust pipe with a shroud and then drip oil onto it and suck the oil vapors into the air intake of the engine to be burned with the diesel...
xianc78
in reply to Caleb James DeLisle • • •