People, I'm the last person to minimise the genocidal mass murder Israel is committing in Gaza, but I am a statistician and you should stop quoting this claim that the IDF's own estimates show that 377,000 people in Gaza are unaccounted for or presumably killed.
The link to the original paper on the Harvard Dataverse seems to be down, but a copy is embedded here: 21stcenturywire.com/wp-content…
The calculation compares the pre-war population of 2.227 million with the sum of the IDF's population estimates for the three remaining enclaves outside of its declared evacuation zones. That difference is larger than the current official count of traumatic injury deaths by the repeatedly-quoted 377,000.
Now first of all, note that this is not a finding by the original study author, who doesn't actually address this question at all. They just happen to include some IDF population estimates in their map as ancillary information.
Secondly, note that for Gaza City, the figure is given as “1 mil” (as opposed to, say, “1.0 mil”), indicating it is rounded. So already there could easily be 77,000 or however many people disappearing in that rounding error. It could work in the other direction too, of course, but the point remains that we shouldn't read too much into the number.
Thirdly, the Palestinian ambassador to Egypt has suggested that as many as 100,000 have managed to flee. thenewhumanitarian.org/news-fe…
Finally, the assumption that the population outside of the enclaves, inside the “evacuated" areas, is zero, is known to be false. As a matter of fact, we've been literally objecting that ‘Israel is falsely designating Gaza areas as empty in order to bomb them’ (972mag.com/israel-gaza-empty-n…). The IDF claims areas as “evacuated" if it estimates that less than 20 percent of the population remain. That easily leaves room for tens of thousands, or even a hundred thousand, to still be in those areas.
Maybe the death toll really is 400,000, who knows. But it's simply incorrect to claim that these numbers somehow suggest, never mind establish, that it is, or that the IDF itself has reached that conclusion. These numbers are also perfectly consistent with the total death toll in the 150,000-200,000 range that is suggested by other estimation approaches.
newarab.com/news/israel-disapp…
Israel 'disappeared' 377,000 people in Gaza, half are children
Over 377,000 people, half of them children, are missing in Gaza since Oct 2023, says Harvard-linked report, pointing to a far higher death toll than reported.The New Arab Staff (The new Arab)
Erik van Straten
in reply to Bilal Barakat 🍉 • • •: agreed.
Please do not exaggerate or guess; if eventually the number of murdered Gazans ends up lower, idiots will say "See? It wasn't that bad".
And there are a lot of idiots.
#FrancescaAlbaneseIsRight #Gaza #GazaGenocide
Disisdeguey🔻Pavlichenko🇵🇸 reshared this.
Bilal Barakat 🍉
Unknown parent • • •@Ryan
Yes, but the issue is not that the 377k figure is an estimate, but that it's unsound. I have no problem with quoting estimates based on a sensible methodology.