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2025-08-01 00:02:13

With Gaza as its Compass, Yemen Rewrites the Rules of Naval Warfare

After the Ansarallah-aligned Yemeni Armed Forces (YAF) announced that it would resume attacks on merchant ships linked to companies operating with Israeli ports, tensions in the Red Sea and beyond have reignited, as Tel Aviv’s ongoing genocide in Gaza fuels instability across West Asia.

As part of the fourth phase of the blockade, the Yemeni army sank two commercial vessels earlier this month, showcasing not only its enduring capabilities but also the failure of US-led strikes to curb its maritime campaign.

On 6 May, US President Donald Trump claimed, “The Houthis have declared they no longer want to fight. They simply don’t want to fight anymore. And we will honor that. We will stop the bombings, and they have surrendered.”

Yemeni officials immediately dismissed the claim, reiterating that Sanaa had not negotiated with Washington nor agreed to halt operations in support of Gaza. The Sanaa government’s naval campaign resumed soon after, with fresh attacks targeting Israeli-linked vessels – undermining Trump’s attempt to declare victory.

New red lines in the Red Sea

In a statement on Sunday, explaining the latest phase of the naval operations, YAF spokesman Brigadier General Yahya Saree said:

“This escalation includes targeting all ships belonging to any company that deals with Israeli ports, regardless of their nationality and wherever they may be, within our forces’ reach. We warn all companies to cease their dealings with Israeli ports, starting the hour this statement is issued.”

The new escalation comes just several weeks after the sinking of two Liberian-flagged, Greek-owned bulk carriers – the Magic Seas and the Eternity C. In the latter attack, four sailors were killed and two others wounded, while 11 other crew members were taken captive.
Following the sinking of the two ships, Ansarallah leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi revealed that the YAF had carried out over 1,679 attacks since November 2023 using missiles, drones, and warships in support of Gaza, warning of further escalation if the war does not end.

Although the Sanaa government agreed in May to a ceasefire with Washington, halting attacks on US warships, it maintains that this truce does not apply to vessels linked to the occupation state. These ships, Sanaa argues, continue to serve Israeli ports, part of “occupied Palestine.”

Contrary to western media narratives of indiscriminate aggression, maritime data from Lloyd’s List confirmed that both targeted vessels had routinely docked in Israeli ports over the past year.

The ongoing attacks have prompted international concern. The UN Security Council recently approved continued reporting on Red Sea maritime assaults. Twelve members of the 15-member council voted in favor, while Russia, China, and Algeria abstained over concerns about breaches of Yemen’s sovereignty.

China’s deputy UN Ambassador Geng Shuang called tensions in the Red Sea “a major manifestation of the spillover from the Gaza conflict.” At the same time, the Russian UN representative also stressed the link between normalizing the situation in the Red Sea and the need for a ceasefire in Gaza.

Challenging naval supremacy

Despite the presence of five major foreign military bases in Djibouti – home to US, French, Japanese, Chinese, and Italian forces – the Ansarallah-aligned army has continued to strike commercial vessels with precision. This raises uncomfortable questions about western and allied naval efficacy.

Speaking to The Cradle, Senior Research Fellow at The Soufan Center, Colin P. Clarke – who also teaches at Carnegie Mellon’s Institute for Politics and Strategy – says Yemen ranks among the most potent forces within the Axis of Resistance and shows no sign of retreat:

“Out of all the ‘Axis’ proxies, the Houthis are among the most potent and also have a lot to prove. I don’t expect them to wind down their military campaign at any point soon.”

Nicholas Brumfield, a Washington-based analyst on Yemen and maritime security, concurs. He tells The Cradle that Yemen’s campaign has remained largely undiminished despite nearly two years of US and Israeli airstrikes:

“The Houthi attacks since early July have thus far been limited to areas of the Red Sea where they have attacked before, so it’s unclear if there’s been any increase in their range. As for Trump’s claims of capitulation, that was always viewed by most researchers focused on Yemen as a bit of hot air. The US–Houthi ceasefire was a limited de-escalation between two parties, and the Houthis have more or less been continuing what they were doing before the truce in terms of attacking Israel directly.”

Clarke adds that Trump’s reluctance to escalate against Yemen stemmed from electoral optics and strategic caution against bogging the US down in “endless wars,” which is one of the reasons why the US involvement in bombing Iran was so circumscribed. “Trump believes, perhaps correctly so, that it would be extremely difficult to engage with the Houthis without being sucked into a quagmire from which it would be difficult to escape from. And the results would be hard to measure.”

According to Mohamed Aliriani of the Yemen Policy Center, the May ceasefire secured safe passage for US, UK, Chinese, and Russian vessels – thanks to the latter two’s ties with Iran. But ships from other nations remain exposed. European-led operations, he argues, are largely ineffectual in safeguarding their cargoes.

Aliriani tells The Cradle that “the current situation has created a two-tiered, protectionist system that benefits powerful states while driving up global insurance and shipping costs, setting a dangerous precedent for other strategic chokepoints.”

Persistently high insurance premiums reflect the enduring risk. “Had the threat been perceived as eliminated, traffic would have resumed, and rates would have dropped,” he explains. The Yemeni army’s targeting of oil and chemical carriers has introduced environmental and financial perils that keep insurers wary.

Redefining control at sea

These facts point to a stark reality: The Ansarallah-led naval campaign has largely succeeded in imposing an effective blockade on Israeli-linked maritime traffic.

Still, Aliriani cautions against overstating the extent of Sanaa’s control. “The Houthis do not exercise Sea Control over the Red Sea, as they lack a surface fleet capable of patrolling and commanding the waterways. What they have successfully achieved is Area Denial.” By demonstrating a credible capability to hold any vessel transiting the Bab al-Mandab Strait at risk, they have made passage through this critical chokepoint prohibitively dangerous for any vessel:

“Their strike range has proven to extend for hundreds of kilometers and given the information available about the weapons used, range likely exceeds 1,000 kilometers, effectively denying the use of a vast area without needing to control it physically.”

Independent force, not Iranian proxy

Western narratives often depict Ansarallah as mere Iranian proxies. Yet, there is scant evidence that Tehran directed these maritime attacks.

Brumfield points out that while Iran continues to supply advanced weaponry to its ally – as evidenced by a 750-ton arms shipment intercepted en route to Yemen – there is no indication of Iranian command over Ansarallah operations.

Former UN envoy to Yemen Jamal Benomar has consistently emphasized Sanaa’s autonomous decision-making, noting that they “have their own agendas and decision-making mechanisms.”

Palestine remains the compass

The timing of recent Yemeni operations suggests a clear link to developments in Gaza. Brumfield observes that Sanaa was notably quiet during last month’s 12-day war between Iran and Israel, only to escalate following reports of worsening conditions in the besieged enclave:

“When there was a ceasefire in Gaza, the Houthis completely stopped their maritime attacks. Recent reports of deteriorating humanitarian conditions in Gaza may have contributed to the group’s decision to re-escalate in this file.”

While some analysts suggest that Ansarallah’s pro-Palestinian rhetoric is a political maneuver to boost legitimacy amid domestic challenges, Benomar insists their stance on Palestine is ideologically embedded. “They’re not just being opportunistic as Palestine is a core part of their ideology.”

Although Tel Aviv has urged Washington to relaunch strikes on Yemen, most experts, including Aliriani, believe the US is unlikely to escalate unless the Ansarallah-allied military crosses a significant red line. So far, the YAF has targeted only vessels tied to Israeli trade.

However, Ansarallah’s recent decision to strike all ships linked to Israeli ports, regardless of nationality, may drag new actors – such as Egypt – into the fray. Cairo’s deepening logistical ties to Israeli trade may soon make it a target of Yemen’s expanding campaign.

“The Houthis” may not control the seas, but they have undeniably changed the rules of engagement.

source: The Cradle

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^{Eric Priante Martin (Tradewinds News)}