Excellent essay by Gary Marcus analyzing the many assumptions - - many edging easily into sci-fi -- of the "AI 2027" scenario:
garymarcus.substack.com/p/the-…
I particularly like how he ends the essay -- pointing out that these sci-fi warnings ("killer/incomprehensible-to-us-mere-humans AI is imminent!") *can* have a salutary effect ...
... i.e. getting us to think about AI risks
but it also has a "criti-hype" problem: By making AGI seem imminent, it justifies massive AI investment
The “AI 2027” Scenario: How realistic is it?
Everyone’s been talking about it. JD Vance read it. What does it actually tell us?Gary Marcus (Marcus on AI)
William Robison
in reply to N. E. Felibata 👽 • • •