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Yılandan çıplak,
Vurgun ve belâ
Gelip durmuşsam kapına
Var mı ki doymazlığım?
İlle de ille
Sevmelerim,
Sevmelerim gibisi?
Oturmuş yazıcılar
Fermanım yazar
N'olur gel,
Ay karanlık..."

Ahmed Arif

Why Democrats are down - UnHerd

#US #politics

Democrats have an image problem. According to a Wall Street Journal survey that has tracked the popularity of the two major parties for 35 years, a record-low 33% of Americans approve of the Democratic Party. CNN likewise reports an approval rating of 28%, the lowest in more than three decades of polling. Quinnipiac finds that only 19% of Americans approve of how congressional Democrats are handling the job — the lowest share in the 16 years the pollster has been asking that question. Aggregating the polls, the analysts G. Elliott Morris and Mary Radcliffe calculate a Democratic disadvantage of 10 points in net favorability — the worst figure the party has faced in more than two decades.

One might be tempted to conclude from this data that voters simply agree with Republicans more on the issues. The real story is more complicated. What Democrats are lacking isn’t so much the right policy package, but a demonstrated willingness to stand up to Donald Trump and his agenda in the second term. The issue, moreover, is less one of increasing Democratic unpopularity, than Republicans weathering a general decline in trust in institutions due to the unique connection Trump has with a significant minority of the country. Democrats cannot break this bond; they can only hope to mobilize the forces against it.

Consider polling about specific bills. Last month, Trump signed the One Big Beautiful Bill, the signature legislation of his second term thus far. On average, it had a net approval rating of -23, making it the second most unpopular major piece of legislation under consideration since 1990, only beating out the 2017 GOP health-care bill. In contrast, Biden’s infrastructure bill was at +39 when it was polled.

Put another way: When asked about specific pieces of legislation, voters prefer the Democratic approach of higher spending on infrastructure and social services to Republicans’ spending cuts that only partially offset tax cuts disproportionately favoring the wealthiest Americans.

Nate Silver’s tracking of polls finds Trump’s approval rating to be underwater by double digits on inflation, trade, and the economy. Immigration is Trump’s strongest issue, but even here, net approval is currently at -3. To be sure, the Journal poll shows Republicans to be more trusted on issues like immigration and the economy. Meanwhile, YouGov in May found nine issues where Democrats had an advantage, and 10 where Republicans did. It’s difficult to know what to make of polls showing that voters agree more with Democratic tax-and-spending bills than those favored by Republicans, while at the same time Republicans are more trusted on the economy as an abstract issue. Another contradiction: while Americans dislike Trump’s tariffs, and one would think that Democrats represent a return to the status quo, they still trust Republicans equally as much as Democrats or more on the issue. This shouldn’t be logically possible, and probably again reflects voters not thinking too carefully about their political attitudes.

Issue polling is, in short, a mess. Although we can draw broad lessons about which party owns specific policy areas, I would be hesitant to use it in order to make inferences regarding recent changes in how Americans view Democrats and Republicans.

So if not policy, what does explain the sorry state of the Democrats? It would be one thing if they were cratering with Independents. That would suggest that they are simply out of step with the majority of Americans. In fact, the party leadership is reaching new lows because it faces discontent among its base. In the CNN poll cited above, only 58% of Democratic-aligned adults have a favorable view of their party, compared to 76% of Republicans. Morris and Radcliffe point to a Strength in Numbers/Verasite poll showing that Left-wing Democratic voters are disproportionately unhappy: about 20% of self-identified “very liberal” Democrats now have an unfavorable view of their own party, far higher than the equivalent disaffection among “very conservative” Republicans, who are at 8%. If you factor out this Left-flank discontent, Democratic approval would rise by a net of eight points. In the Strength in Numbers poll, Democrats actually do better with Independents.

The Republican advantage, then, seems mostly or completely driven by very liberal voters not liking the current Democratic Party. Does that mean that, in order to match Republicans in popularity, all Democrats would have to do is move Left? Unfortunately for them, surveys indicate that their voters would like them to do precisely the opposite.

According to a February poll from Gallup, as of early 2025, only 22% of Democrats were content with the party’s current ideological approach — everyone else wanted change. Crucially, 45% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents said the party should become more moderate, while 29% wanted it to be more liberal or progressive. Among Republicans, in contrast, a healthy plurality of 43% was satisfied with the party and wanted it to stay the course.

What this means is that Democrats might need to think twice before simply trying to satisfy the most extreme voices among their base. Otherwise, they may lose moderate voters in the process, as more of their supporters want them to take a centrist path.

There is nothing all that mysterious about any of this. No matter where the Democrats are ideologically, voters could disapprove of the party from either side. A very liberal Democratic voter and a moderate one might both have gripes, which you would expect in a large, diverse country with only two major parties representing the entire political spectrum.

Perhaps it is a mistake, then, to focus on Democratic unpopularity. Maybe the question we should ask is why Republican approval remains so high among its base, in an era where trust in institutions is collapsing. The Trump-era GOP has taken radically unpopular positions on taxing and spending policy. Yet the Republican base seems to shrug everything off and remains malleable, seemingly due to Trump’s unique charisma. A KFF tracking poll shows that while only 61% of Republicans approved of the Big Beautiful Bill in June, that figure had risen to 78% in July.

Republican politicians now regularly justify their actions based on the idea that they follow the will of Trump. Sen. Markwayne Mullin of Oklahoma was more explicit than most when he said that he fought against releasing Epstein documents in order to give Trump “cover,” arguing that Democrats would use any information that came out to target the president. Sen. Rick Scott of Florida, when praising the recent trade deal with South Korea, urged his followers to “Trust in Trump”. A recent New York Times headline reads: “Texas Republicans Unveil Gerrymandered House Map, Trying to Please Trump,” showing that the president’s influence reaches down to what have traditionally been state and local issues.

The behavior of the current Congress has been downright cult-like. As the Associated Press reports, a raft of GOP proposals would allow Americans to “take the day off work for Donald Trump’s birthday,” receive “a $100 bill with Trump’s portrait on it,” and land at “Donald J. Trump International Airport near the nation’s capital,” among other similar measures.

It’s easy to feel contempt for politicians here. But we can assume that they are simply following their voters, who really love this man. Trump’s approval remains sky high in a party that was famous for turning on its leaders in Congress throughout the Obama era. Since 2023, researchers at Vanderbilt University have been asking Republicans if they consider themselves more supporters of MAGA or the traditional GOP. The first time they posed the question, 37% of respondents reported that they feel MAGA first. Today, the MAGA-first group is at 52%.

This is particularly interesting because MAGA is notoriously flexible when it comes to ideology. Those who consider themselves more intellectual Trumpists have no shortage of complaints about the president, from his bombing of Iran to his Medicaid cuts. A popular meme shows Trump implementing tariffs and being praised for it by a cartoon supporter in a red hat, who then turns around and declares “art of the deal” every time he removes the levies.

The story of falling Democratic popularity relative to Republicans is therefore only partly a story about Democrats. We are in an era of declining trust, which afflicts nearly all institutions, from the media to Congress to the medical system. Of course, the two major political parties are likely to take a hit under those conditions. Yet Republicans are buoyed by a cult of personality that is largely impervious to the effects of bad news or unpopular policy positions.

According to the Wall Street Journal poll, Republicans are currently about where they were in 2010 in terms of net favorability. Meanwhile, Democrats have seen an almost continuous decline. Thus, the notion that Trump is a drag on the GOP likely gets things exactly backwards. While his overall popularity might be underwater, what distinguishes Trump from other politicians is his ability to hold a base of support among a substantial and unshakable minority of the American people. This rubs off on the rest of the GOP, as long as lesser Republicans are seen to be doing the bidding of their leader.

That doesn’t mean all hope is lost for Democrats. While the party is indeed divided on whether it should become more moderate or liberal, there is greater unity on standing up to Trump. In a March poll that asked Democrats how they would grade their party’s response to Trump, 70% gave them a C or lower, with 21% giving an F. Only 17% said that Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer was doing enough to fight Trump; 61% felt he wasn’t doing enough. Democratic voters overwhelmingly support efforts like trying to block Trump’s actions through the courts and engaging in mass protests.

“While the party is indeed divided on whether it should become more moderate or liberal, there is greater unity on standing up to Trump.”

It follows that Democratic elected officials can likely shore up their own base of support by standing together against Trump’s political priorities. Would that possibly hurt them with Independents? One can’t say for sure, but given that Trump’s overall approval rating is underwater, it isn’t as if they would be going against the tide of public opinion. And Republicans are already extremely polarized against Democrats, and likely to stay that way, given their increasingly propagandistic media-consumption habits.

Trump’s role in the national psyche is so overwhelming that nearly every major political story is, at heart, a story about Trump. Republicans believe what they believe largely based on what Trump says and does. The Democrats are now a party that is ideologically divided, but united in opposition to Trump.

Given the fact that Trump’s base can’t be moved, Democrats might as well show life and pull out all the stops to oppose his agenda. On policy and messaging, it probably makes sense to moderate, rather than move to the Left. On anti-Trump opposition, however, the party must be resolute. In other words, Democrats need a centrism that fights. As the Republican Party becomes more and more enthralled to one man and his personal agenda, there is little to be gained by hoping to appease the other side.

Oppositional centrism would shore up the Democrats’ own base, and likely has the best chance of winning over the small number of Americans who are still persuadable. MAGAs will find a reason to be angry regardless. In order to thrive in the face of an increasingly unified opposition, Democrats cannot keep living in fear of the backlash that might result from standing up to Trump.

Richard Hanania, an UnHerd columnist, is the president of the Center for the Study of Partisanship and Ideology and blogs at Substack.

unherd.com/2025/08/democrats-n…

Why Democrats are down

^{Richard Hanania (UnHerd)}