Vance’s Munich Speech Vindicated Putin’s Summer 2022 Prediction About Political Change In Europe
Vance’s Munich Speech Vindicated Putin’s Summer 2022 Prediction About Political Change In Europe
The Russian leader was the first to talk about a European-wide populist-nationalist revolution and to foresee the emergence of civilization-states as the next phase of the global systemic transition.
Vice President Vance excoriated the Europeans in his keynote speech at last week’s Munich Security Conference, which can be read in full here. He accused the ruling liberal-globalist elite of becoming the greatest threat to their own civilization after straying from its traditional values and massively importing migrants. Vance made it clear that Trump 2.0 won’t support them against their own people, especially the populist-nationalists who they’re actively cancelling, censoring, and persecuting.
He very strongly implied that the US wants these same like-minded movements to rise to power across Europe, which would amount to a continent-wide revolution of the sort that Putin was the first to predict back in June 2022 while speaking at that year’s St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. His speech can be read in full here, but what follows is the pertinent excerpt that’s since been vindicated by none other than the new American Vice President nearly three years after being mocked by Western leaders:
“A direct result of the European politicians’ actions and events this year will be the further growth of inequality in these countries, which will, in turn, split their societies still more, and the point at issue is not only the well-being but also the value orientation of various groups in these societies. Indeed, these differences are being suppressed and swept under the rug.Frankly, the democratic procedures and elections in Europe and the forces that come to power look like a front, because almost identical political parties come and go, while deep down things remain the same. The real interests of people and national businesses are being pushed further and further to the periphery.
Such a disconnect from reality and the demands of society will inevitably lead to a surge in populism and extremist and radical movements, major socioeconomic changes, degradation and a change of elites in the short term. As you can see, traditional parties lose all the time. New entities are coming to the surface, but they have little chance for survival if they are not much different from the existing ones.”
The populist-nationalists that have since risen all across Europe wouldn’t have anywhere near the support that they do had it not been for the ruling liberal-globalist elite’s counterproductive compliance with the US’ anti-Russian sanctions. The massive import of civilizationally dissimilar immigrants, many of whom refuse to assimilate and integrate into European society, played a major role as well but it was the economic consequences of these sanctions that led to their surge in popularity over the past three years.
The public at large threw their weight behind populist-nationalists as a result of these socio-cultural (migrant-related) and especially economic (sanctions-related) changes, the latter of which have accelerated since 2022 unlike the former that peaked in 2015 and has since mostly stabilized. Forecasting the further worsening of these economic trends amidst the then-newly imposed sanctions and prognosticating their political consequences, Putin soon thereafter elaborated on his prediction.
He did this at the ceremony welcoming four former Ukrainian regions to Russia on 30 September 2022. His full speech can be read here and was analysed here at the time, which focused on the last two-thirds of his speech about the global struggle for democracy against the Western elite, both across the world and within the West itself. There’s too much to cite so readers are encouraged to at least read through the analysis if they don’t have the time to read through the full speech, but here are a few highlights:
“People cannot be fed with printed dollars and euros…That is why politicians in Europe have to convince their fellow citizens to eat less, take a shower less often and dress warmer at home. And those who start asking fair questions like ‘Why is that, in fact?’ are immediately declared enemies, extremists and radicals. They point back at Russia and say: that is the source of all your troubles. More lies.…
Let me repeat that the dictatorship of the Western elites targets all societies, including the citizens of Western countries themselves. This is a challenge to all. This complete renunciation of what it means to be human, the overthrow of faith and traditional values, and the suppression of freedom are coming to resemble a ‘religion in reverse’ – pure Satanism.
…
As I have already said, we have many like-minded people in Europe and the United States, and we feel and see their support. An essentially emancipatory, anti-colonial movement against unipolar hegemony is taking shape in the most diverse countries and societies. Its power will only grow with time. It is this force that will determine our future geopolitical reality.”
Putin was talking about the exact same populist-nationalists who are now on the verge of electorally coming to power all across Europe and whose movements were just endorsed by Vance at Munich. The confluence of interests between Russia and Trump’s America as regards these political forces was also just touched upon in this analysis here, which mentions how these three – Russia, Trump’s America, and Europe’s populist-nationalists – embrace Russian philosopher Alexander Dugin’s civilization-state model.
Vance showed his adherence to these views by talking about the US and Europe’s “shared civilization”, which aligns with the essence of Dugin’s teachings about how International Relations are evolving in the direction of civilization-states like the West and the Russian World, et al. Trump 2.0, whose return to power can be described as the “Second American Revolution”, and Europe’s populist-nationalists can be considered the vanguards of the West’s civilizational revival that Trump calls the “American Golden Age”.
Putin embraced Dugin’s civilization-state model long ago, with his most famous expression thereof being the article that he wrote in July 2021 “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians”, which explicitly talks about these kindred people’s “civilizational ties”. He’s since made repeated references to the uniqueness of Russian Civilization, thus being ahead of his Western counterparts, who are only just now starting to speak in the same way.
Considering all of this, it was veritably the case that Vance just vindicated Putin’s prediction about political change in Europe, which could lead to a “new world order” if successful. The West’s coalescence into a civilization-state can accelerate a return to t“spheres of influence” modelled off of the “19th-Century Great Power Chessboard” paradigm wherein Great Power-led civilization-states like Russia and the US-led West cut deals with one another over smaller countries instead of using them against each other.
While this approach is admittedly controversial, it’s the embodiment of realpolitik in contemporary global affairs, pragmatically eschewing ideological imperatives in favour of interests-driven agreements. Should the US-led West begin applying it, or rather return to this model of diplomacy that it previously practiced for centuries, then it would tremendously restore stability to International Relations. It’s premature to predict if this will happen, let alone when, just that it’s now a credible scenario to monitor.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Voice of East.
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Why Might Russia Repair Its Ties With The West And How Could This Reshape Its Foreign Policy?
Why Might Russia Repair Its Ties With The West And How Could This Reshape Its Foreign Policy?To be clear, the explanations and forecasts shared in this analysis concern the scenario of a Russian rapprochement with the West upon the successful conclusion of peace talks with the US, they’re not in any way a declaration of what will absolutely come to pass.
Trump’s proposal to return Russia to the G7 and Orban’s prediction about it being “reintegrated into…the European security system and even the European economic and energy system” after the Ukrainian Conflict ends hint at a Russian rapprochement with the West. Russian-US peace talks are underway, and if they succeed in bringing about any of the aforesaid outcomes, then this would have to be cogently accounted for as would the future of Russian foreign policy. Here are some explanations and forecasts:
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* Russia Neutralized Ukrainian-Emanating Threats From NATO
The nearly three-year-long special operation saw Russia destroy all of NATO’s stockpiles that it sent to Ukraine, which could have otherwise been used to help launch a conventional proxy invasion of Russia one day had Russia not decisively stopped the bloc’s clandestine expansion into Ukraine. Although the risk of World War III spiked at times during the interim due to some very dangerous US-backed Ukrainian provocations, that risk has now largely decreased due to Russia’s victory over NATO’s Ukrainian proxy.
* Trump’s Return Revolutionized Russian-US Relations
The “Department Of Government Efficiency’s” purge of warmongering liberal-globalists, who hitherto controlled the US’ permanent military, intelligence, and diplomatic bureaucracies (“deep state”), immediately after Trump’s inauguration is responsible for the commencement of Russian-US talks. These fast-moving processes revolutionized Russian-US relations and consequently contributed to Russia recalibrating its threat assessment of the US, which in turn reopened previously closed opportunities.
* Pragmatic Mutual Compromises Are Finally Possible
While it remains to be seen exactly what form they’d take, whatever agreement might emerge from the ongoing Russian-US talks will almost certainly entail pragmatic mutual compromises, which would have become possible due to the aforesaid factors. Neither Putin nor Trump are maximalists, and both have proven their pragmatism in the past, so it’s reasonable to expect them to meet each other in the middle. The example that they set could then become the norm for resolving other states’ disputes and conflicts.
* Russia Never Rejected Cooperation With Any Country
It was the US-led West that rejected cooperation with Russia, not the inverse, since Russia always maintained that it’ll cooperate with any friendly country. For that reason, today’s enemies could become tomorrow’s partners if they reverse their unfriendly policies. After all, former enemies like Turkiye, Iran, and China are now some of Russia’s closest partners, and ties with Germany were excellent prior to 2022 despite the Nazis’ genocide of the Soviets, so the precedent exists for a rapprochement with the West.
* Its Multipolar Moves Were Always Gradual & Responsible
Apart from the special operation, which was a last-ditch attempt to safeguard Russia’s national security after NATO’s clandestine expansion into Ukraine, all of Russia’s multipolar moves were always gradual and responsible. Creating a BRICS currency for example, which Russia confirmed that it isn’t doing, could throw the fragile and interconnected order into chaos to everyone’s detriment. Any perceived slowdown of multipolar moves on its part after a rapprochement with the West would therefore be an illusion.
* Russia & Trump’s America Both Prefer Populist-Nationalists
For the first time since the end of the Old Cold War, America under Trump’s second administration now openly prefers populist-nationalist leaders and movements over liberal-globalists, which aligns with Russia’s preference from over the past decade. This convergence of interests might even see them working together in third countries as part of a new modus vivendi to liberate them from the yoke of the liberal-globalist holdovers that the US is now actively purging from its “deep state”.
* Both Are Also Favourable Towards The Rise Of Civilization-States
Professor Alexander Dugin’s prediction about the rise of civilization-states came true after Russia’s Eurasian Union took on such contours in the name of the Russian World while Trump 2.0 made claims to Canada and Greenland as part of a complementary “Fortress America” policy. They might therefore jointly support populist-nationalist movements in civilizational anchor states who endeavour to build their own similar regional spheres of influence in the emerging multipolar-civilizational world order.
* Russia Is Neutral Amidst The Sino-US Dimension Of The New Cold War
Just like China is neutral amidst the Russo-US dimension of the New Cold War, so too is Russia neutral towards the Sino-US one, despite each being one another’s top strategic partner. They’re importantly not allies though and that’s why neither is obligated to support the other against the US, thus explaining why China doesn’t arm Russia or recognize its control over the New Regions, which further justifies Russian neutrality if the Sino-US rivalry foreseeably intensifies after the Ukrainian Conflict ends.
* Multi-Alignment Is The Mainstay Of Russian Foreign Policy
Russia has always sought to balance between its diverse foreign partners, but its grand strategic goal of serving as a bridge between China and the EU that adds value to trade in each direction was offset by the special operation that it was compelled to wage. A meaningful rapprochement with the West could lead to the resumption of this policy, albeit in new conditions after what just happened and the impending intensification of the Sino-US rivalry, which would restore its briefly abandoned balancing act.
* Russia Will Always Promote Multipolarity Across The World
There’s no realistic chance that Russia will ever stop promoting multipolarity since its enduring national security interests depend on the successful completion of these processes across the world. Even if ties improve with the West, Russia will still promote regionalization in the Global South to accelerate the rise of civilization-states and their associated spheres of influence, which can hasten the creation of a “new world order” that’s more predictable for larger players at least. This is arguably Russia’s endgame.
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To be clear, the explanations and forecasts shared above concern the scenario of a Russian rapprochement with the West upon the successful conclusion of peace talks with the US, they’re not in any way a declaration of what will absolutely come to pass. That scenario remains credible, though its likelihood can’t be confidently assessed, due to recent events. The purpose of this exercise is therefore solely to predict Russia’s motives if this happens and the possible consequence for its foreign policy.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial policy of Voice of East.
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