From what I read, the strikes against Fordow were largely unsuccessful, with no damage to the actual installations. Similar can be said about Natanz and Isfahan. So this was an attack with limited to no success, that will put #Iran in a situation where they HAVE to respond. This response can easily trigger an open war, maybe even a war declaration (the only thing the Democrats are complaining about).
benda
in reply to argumento • • •argumento
in reply to benda • • •benda
in reply to argumento • • •eh yes and no. my read is they know they have deterrence and its as effective as it can be given the circumstance.
trump wanted to bomb something to say he bombed something, to say the nuclear plants are gone so no need for anything, f the negotiations, no war unless they hit us.
the iranians are very nonchalant about the whole situation from everything im seeing so far. its not a big deal. the plants were 1) evacuated, 2)all radioactive material removed and 3)barely damaged anyways. in their own words "no irreversible damage".
now, the war with israel is the war with israel. they launched another barrage just a couple minutes ago. israel must surrender or be destroyed. so the only question is if trump will feel he has to enter to defend israel. bc tonight, he signaled that he really doesnt want to go in. (obviously the entire u.s. gov't apparatus does, so im not saying he cant be pressured. but it wont be his preferred path).
benda
Unknown parent • • •if you're not willing to take a small hit without going kamikazee, you already lost the war. iran has made it this far since the revolution by being smart, measured, strategic. unlike the u.s. .
they see trump's political weakness over this issue. the whole world sees israel's weakness bc of the genocide.
iran *will not* hit back at the u.s. over this. the war with israel continues though. thats different.
and if trump still gets pulled in bc of that... thats up to the american public. its the will of the people versus the lobbyists, and donors.
benda
Unknown parent • • •israel is going to take a pounding, which has already begun on... if that makes you feel better?
that might force trump in eventually, but after tonight, i genuinely believe he does not want to get involved.
benda
Unknown parent • • •youtube.com/watch?v=F0TQjJzfUP…
Khamenei LIVE: Iran Supreme Leader's Speech On US Joining Israel War Viral After Trump Bombs Iran
YouTubeargumento
Unknown parent • • •@CosmickTrigger @benda Don't be sad, look at the videos coming out of Tel Aviv, you'll feel better.
LOL
Now, seriously, indeed the American attack was very limited in its impact, and there's a reason to think that Iran won't respond. Back when Trump murdered Gral. Soleimani, Iran bombed a US base in Iraq as response, but let the Americans know beforehand so the base was empty when the missiles stroke. It was a negotiated theater so Iran woludn't loose face. But I don't think it'll be the case.
argumento
in reply to benda • • •benda
in reply to argumento • • •the u.s. is almost certainly suicide. it is a deterrent. its the final deterrent to defend the state. the bee's sting.
but they cant back down from israel. bc thats a fair fight and its a matter of honor. with respect to Israel, CosmickTrigger's crude analogy is more appropriate. there is no reason to stop hitting israel until they surrender and stop the genocide.