By 2030, the Irish government plans to build 300,000 homes.
In the 1980s, 250,000 homes were built.
In the 1990s, 400,000 homes were built.
In the 2000s, 600,000 homes were built.
In the 2010s, 100,000 homes were built.
In the last 4 years, 100,000 homes were built.
Dr.Nick
in reply to Dr.Nick • • •If the government instantly magiced 320,000 homes, we would meet today's demand. This includes an expected 5% turnover figure (i.e. for sale). Currently turnover is less than 1%
I'm under 40. 55,000 people sat the leaving cert exams when I did, 20 years ago. In 2024 that number was 61,000.
You'd need to make at least 80,000 new homes a year to keep up with today's demand - even after magically creating 320,000 homes. More in 10 - 15 years time.
Dr.Nick
in reply to Dr.Nick • • •In the 1980s, an Irish couple spent 17% of their income on a mortgage.
Today? 26%.
Back then, the average home cost 1.7x the average income.
Now? Over 7x.
Dual incomes used to be optional and got you a nicer home or on the ladder faster.
Now? Mandatory - even for a shit box.
Single income households? Essentially locked out (average age 39).
So no, your parents didn't have it harder. They had it handed to them - and pulled the ladder up.
Dr.Nick
in reply to Dr.Nick • • •In the 2024 Irish elections, the parties in power promised ~50,000 new homes a year. This falls drastically short of current and expected demand.
Boycotting holiday homes in Mayo is not a solution.
Exempting a garden shed with notions from planning is not a solution.
Google offering housing to public sector workers is not a solution.
Blaming others is not a solution.
We know what the solution is. For 10+ years they've said "It won't happen overnight".
Bullshit - it won't happen at all
Dr.Nick
in reply to Dr.Nick • • •In those 10 years, homelessness up 575%.
In 2024, 15,000 people were homeless. 9,000 are families.
Cost? €361,000,000.
€40,111/family/year. €3,343pm
50% are homeless for over 1 year. 20% for over 2 years.
Median home price, €355,000.
Cost? 30 years at 3.0% - €1,496pm
€3,343pm clears that mortgage in 10 years.
We are spending more to keep people on the streets than in homes, with walls made of misery instead of brick. Build homes instead of excuses.
Dr.Nick
in reply to Dr.Nick • • •ESRI: "No new homes 'til 2027, lads!"
Targets now:
2025: 34,000
2026: 37,000
2027: 44,000
2028: 43,000
2029: 43,000
Central Bank: "We need 54,000/year for 25 years just to stand still."
Reality check: 93,000/year won't fix the backlog in a decade.
Talks of 100% mortgages - they will only raise prices. We built 93,000 homes and had 100% mortgages back in 2006... Same year they made Priory Hall.
Dr.Nick
in reply to Dr.Nick • • •The Irish government will make the entire country a "Rent Pressure Zone", negating the commonly understood meaning of the word Zone... Becoming "Rent Pressure".
They say these plans are to incentivise institutional investors... There are already incentives, such as:
* No Corporation Tax or CGT
* 24 month rent control reset
* HAP & HTB increasing prices
* RTB exemption for "Co-Living Spaces"
Meanwhile, in the last year prices are up 12.3%. Up 40% in the last 5 years - 100k for a median home.
Dr.Nick
in reply to Dr.Nick • • •€600k is the current price of a 3 bed semi-detached house in Dublin.
John and Mary (34 yo) need a minimum €60k deposit and must have a combined income of €135k - or €68k each - to purchase this home. Their mortgage is €540k.
With a BER rating of C, the most common for second hand homes, their interest rate is 3.2%.
Each month, for the next 30 years, they will pay €2,335.
It will take them 101 months (~8 ½ years) to start paying more principal than interest. They will be 42 years old
Aral Balkan
in reply to Dr.Nick • • •Dr.Nick
in reply to Aral Balkan • • •@aral At 44 with a 20 year term, same inputs, John and Mary will pay €3,050 per month. Fiadh is 10.
They are paying more principal than interest from the beginning.
Fiadh's €10k Confirmation money, 2 years into the mortgage, shaves 5 months off the term.
Dr.Nick
in reply to Aral Balkan • • •@aral At 44 with a 20 year term, same inputs, John and Mary will pay €3,050 per month. Fiadh is 10 when they draw down.
They are paying more principal than interest from the beginning.
Fiadh's €10k Confirmation money, 2 years into the mortgage, shaves 5 months off the term.
Fiadh asks why they didn't use the money to go on holiday like her friends. John quickly changes the subject.
Ownoh
in reply to Dr.Nick • • •KatLS
in reply to Dr.Nick • • •Alanna 🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️
in reply to Dr.Nick • • •Ownoh
in reply to Dr.Nick • • •little to disagree with here but "So no, your parents didn't have it harder. They had it handed to them - and pulled the ladder up." is not a viable analysis when many in the 80s paid 17pc interest rates and waited 10 years for a council house and then got offered to buy one for little money because Thatcherism.
My point being that they too were living in conditions not of their own making.
jack
in reply to Dr.Nick • • •Dr.Nick
in reply to Dr.Nick • • •Context for the edit: 136,160 people sat state exams in 2024. This number includes Leaving Cert, Leaving Cert Applied, and Junior Cycle¹.
60,839 students sat the Leaving Cert in 2024.
This correction does not change the facts, as evident by the proceeding statements in May 2025 by the ESRI and Irish Central Bank.
__
¹ Used to be called Junior Cert. Before that it was called Inter Cert.