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Pirghozin & Ammunition Again

Actually rather surprised to see this:

The Russian front lines could collapse, warned Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin on his Telegram channel on Sunday, accusing the Russian Defense Ministry of cutting off his penal brigades from resupply. "For now, we are trying to figure out the reason: is it just ordinary bureaucracy or a betrayal," said Prigozhin.

That is certainly concerning when Pirghozin talks about the potential for the entire frontline to collapse.

But we do see some dubious analysis coming later on:

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian defenders “are continuing to inflict high casualties against the advancing mixed Russian forces,” according to the latest analysis from the Institute for the Study of War, which added that the Ukrainians are “likely setting robust conditions for a future Ukrainian counteroffensive.”

“The Ukrainian defense of Bakhmut remains strategically sound as it continues to consume Russian manpower and equipment as long as Ukrainian forces do not suffer excessive casualties,” the ISW said. “Ukrainian forces are unlikely to withdraw from Bakhmut all at once and may pursue a gradual fighting withdrawal to exhaust Russian forces through continued urban warfare.”

... Again, imagine thinking that you are really able to keep up with the Russians as Ukraine in a game of attrition when it is already clear that senior brass have wanted you to wihdraw.

The Institute for the Study of War shows itself again as not a very serious study group, but a mouthpiece for the US State Department.

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