TO: Supporters of Tiffany Smiley and Other Interested Parties

FROM: Kristian Hemphill, Campaign Manager, Smiley for Washington

DATE: Monday, November 7, 2022

RE: We’re Winning: What to Expect on Election Night and Beyond

Tiffany Smiley is going to be the next U.S. Senator from the Evergreen State.

We’re now approaching the end of Tiffany Smiley’s “New Mom in Town” Bus Tour and the excitement we’ve seen – from Bellingham to Pullman, from Colville to Vancouver, and everywhere in between – has been nothing short of breathtaking. The momentum we’ve seen over the past month of the campaign is unmistakable, especially after strong wins in two debates.

In one of the last filings with the Federal Election Commission, from October 1 through October 19, Tiffany outraised 30-year incumbent Senator Patty Murray - $3.68 million to $880,000. Tiffany raised just as much in three weeks as Murray did all of last quarter.
A new poll from Moore Information Group shows Smiley leading Murray, 47.4% to 47.0%.
Murray’s image is net negative while Smiley’s image is net positive.
Undecided voters disapprove of Murray by a margin of 53 points.
Other polls have shown this race as a statistical tie, including the Trafalgar Group showing a 1.2% margin (within the poll’s 2.9% margin of error).
Real Clear Politics has moved this race to “TOSS UP” status, while Politico shifted the race from “Likely Dem” to “Lean Dem.”

Along with what we see from ballots that have been returned, we expect a victorious outcome at the end of this process.

What will we see on election night and beyond?

Last week, The Associated Press put together a helpful guide on “what to expect on election night” and beyond.

Washington is a vote-by-mail state and voters are automatically sent a ballot. Once voters return their ballots, either by mail or in a drop box, they can confirm via a state-run website that it’s been received by the county auditor’s office, and where it is in the process. Because a ballot only needs to be postmarked by Election Day, or dropped in a drop box by 8 p.m. election night, about half of the vote is outstanding at the end of the night, making it impossible to quickly determine the winner of close races.

Washington’s 39 counties all post their initial results after 8 p.m. Many counties do daily updates after that, but because of the number of steps involved in ballot verification — including sorting, signature verification and assessment of ballots for extraneous marks — the updates can feel painfully slow for candidates locked in close races and the media organizations covering them. Each county will post one report on election night and again on nights following Election Day ...

Counting is slow in Washington. In 2020, 18.3% of the total vote was not yet counted on election night. Totals didn’t reach 100% until 10 days after the election. Because ballots only have to be postmarked by Election Day, it can take weeks to decide close races. Counties can keep counting up until Nov. 29, the day they certify results ...

People who are in the lead on election night may ultimately lose once all the ballots are counted. Also, because ballots are still arriving at election offices days after Election Day, it’s difficult to know how many ballots are truly outstanding.

BOTTOM LINE: The race for U.S. Senate in Washington State SHOULD NOT be called on election night.

The Smiley for Washington campaign will communicate regularly and as necessary throughout the process.

Tiffany will give remarks on election night on the status of the race after initial returns have been posted. After election night, you should expect to see regular updates from this campaign.

Thank you,

Kristian