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in reply to Michel Patrice

friendica (DFRN) - Link to source

Nanook

@Michel Patrice The thing is if you actually take the time to look at the statistics, FLOODS and FIRES and HURRICAINES are neither happening more often NOR with more severity, they are actually down somewhat. What IS happening is more capital damage but this is only because stupid people build condos on the shorelines.
in reply to Michel Patrice

friendica (DFRN) - Link to source

Nanook

 — (Shoreline, WA, USA)
@Michel Patrice then you're looking at cooked statistics. I should correct that, you may be looking at very narrow statistics, if you look at 2000-2024, yes there is huge variability in this period, but if you look at 1900-2024, within that time frame there is an overall decrease.
in reply to arnst

friendica (DFRN) - Link to source

Nanook

@arnst Let's start with an overall graph of deaths due to natural disasters from 1900 to current:

And then fires:

And then Storms:


Unfortunately I was not on the fly able to find flood data going back more than about 20 years but I think this is largely due to the fact that prior to dams, flooding along river basins was a seasonal occurrence. In fact, it is floods that brings silt down stream and makes productive farmland the rich soil that it is.

But with the exception of short term storms, and I really believe this is largely a reporting bias, until recently we didn't have Doppler radar and the link and a day of rain just wasn't worth recording, but with that exception everything else peaked between 1890 and 1930 and has been less than those peaks in current times.

Unknown parent

friendica (DFRN) - Link to source

Nanook

@**joe No I don't own stock in the energy industry. I am simply not into cave dwelling. I do realize that fossil fuels are eventually going to run out and if we don't shift to better sources before that happens we'll starve to death. But by the same token, if we stop using them before we have alternatives in place we'll starve to death. Thus the ignore it crowd isn't the right solution, the be a lemming and jump off the cliff isn't the right solution either. And windmills and solar panels aren't the right solution because the power they deliver is to diffuse and intermittent and we don't have enough rare Earth metals to make enough energy this way even if we were willing to dedicate the land. Molten salt breeder reactors are the immediate solution and a longer term solution is fusion, which has been now demonstrated in Wendlestein-7x so it is no longer "in the future", it is now a proven technology.
in reply to arnst

friendica (DFRN) - Link to source

Nanook

@arnst If you have anything like honest data, this is as much as it's risen in the last 120 years, and at best we might double CO2 by the end of the century IF we do nothing. CO2 doesn't create a linear increase because it doesn't absorb broadly across the entire spectrum, it absorbs along spectral lines. Those lines are already saturated by the time you get 12-14 feet above the ground. Further increases will somewhat broaden the lines but the majority of the absorption is already in place, so we're not talking huge increases in temperature.
in reply to Michel Patrice

diaspora - Link to source

arnst

@nanook Thanks, but I go by theories that keep being proven by reality while we speak. The tipping points will eventually put it all completely out of our control. Ruthless profiteers will still be ruthless, lying profiteers, but our senses will be that much sharpened!

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